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VALIDATION.md

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Two-path validation

Generated by python -m docs.validate_two_path. The provided 1 m contour survey against free ~30 m SRTM terrarium tiles, over the same sheet (81.2814-81.3126 E, 21.2398-21.2636 N). Rainfall is the documented climatology on both paths, so every difference below is terrain. The map path is run exactly as a user drawing the sheet's rectangle would run it: buffered by 25%, smoothing sigma 8 m, zoom 13.

Headline

1 m contour survey 30 m SRTM (map path) Δ
Elevation range over the sheet 267–298 m 266–298 m -1 / +0 m
DEM agreement (at survey cells) — RMSE 0.26 m, bias -0.06 m r = 0.999
Recommended pond location 21.24392 N, 81.29000 E 21.24368 N, 81.28613 E 402 m apart
Recommended catchment area 66.3 ha 87.0 ha +31%
Best-matching catchment (IoU with the survey's) — site #2, 86.7 ha IoU 0.53
Annual runoff volume, recommended site 127,040 m³ 166,610 m³ +31%
Grid 3.7 m, 638,472 cells 17.8 m, 60,606 cells (incl. buffer) 11× fewer
Runtime, with the ensemble 10.0 s 0.49 s 21× faster

Settings sweep

Smoothing sigma and tile zoom, each against the survey. The default is chosen from this table, not assumed.

sigma zoom grid DEM RMSE top site Δ top area best IoU ensemble (mean ± sd, confidence) time
0 m z13 17.8 m 0.26 m 378 m 85.6 ha 0.54 (#1) 61 ± 36 ha, low 0.49 s
8 m z13 17.8 m 0.26 m 402 m 87.0 ha 0.53 (#2) 80 ± 11 ha, medium 0.49 s
15 m z13 17.8 m 0.40 m 176 m 87.0 ha 0.54 (#1) 399 ± 41 ha, medium 0.47 s
25 m z13 17.8 m 0.73 m 401 m 95.3 ha 0.59 (#4) 99 ± 21 ha, medium 0.49 s
8 m z12 35.6 m 0.86 m 1746 m 129.9 ha 0.53 (#4) 131 ± 1 ha, high 0.13 s

Reading these numbers

The two DEMs agree to 0.26 m RMSE. That is far closer than SRTM's published vertical accuracy (several metres) against real ground, so the provided contour sheet was almost certainly drawn from an SRTM-class DEM itself. This table therefore validates the data path: tile decoding, reprojection, resampling, the buffer and the routing on a coarser grid. It does not measure SRTM against a field survey, and nothing in this repository can. The honest reading is that the map path reproduces what the contour path would say about the same heights, and inherits whatever error the heights carry.

Where the answers differ, resolution is why, not heights. Same heights, a 17.8 m grid instead of 3.1 m: channels move by a cell or two, which is enough to move a confluence and so re-split which cells drain to which outlet. That is what the IoU measures, and it is why the map path's warnings say its catchments are approximate.

z12 is rejected. At 35.6 m the grid is coarser than the source; the recommended site moves 1.7 km to a different valley. z13 is the default.

Survey sites for reference

rank location area
1 21.24392 N, 81.29000 E 66.3 ha
2 21.25109 N, 81.30349 E 56.5 ha
3 21.25162 N, 81.30144 E 24.9 ha
4 21.24832 N, 81.28880 E 17.5 ha
5 21.24743 N, 81.29239 E 11.5 ha

Map-path sites (default settings)

rank location area confidence
1 21.24368 N, 81.28613 E 87.0 ha medium
2 21.24529 N, 81.29128 E 86.7 ha low
3 21.25770 N, 81.28390 E 63.8 ha high
4 21.24094 N, 81.31068 E 52.1 ha high
5 21.24835 N, 81.28871 E 40.7 ha medium