Lecture_07_Forecasts.Rmd

## Lecture 7: Using Models to Create Forecasts {#forecasts}
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Welcome to lecture 7 of **Decision Analysis and Forecasting for Agricultural Development**. We will walk through brief examples and offer the scripts. Feel free to bring up any questions or concerns in the Slack or to [Dr. Cory Whitney](mailto:cory.whitney@uni-bonn.de?subject=[Lecture_7]%20Decision%20Analysis%20Lecture), [Dr. Prajna Kasargodu Anebagilu](mailto:pkasargo@uni-bonn.de?subject=[Lecture_7]%20Decision%20Analysis%20Lecture) or the course tutor.

In this class, you will develop a Keeney-style matrix for your decision problem. You will also develop an impact pathway model for your project work. 

### Group discussion reading: 

- Tetlock, Philip E., and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York, NY: Crown Publishers, 2015.(Chapter 1. An Optimistic Skeptic)