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docs: fix post-hoc evidence-D verdict and soften tie-break claim
Second review caught the evidence-rule-D verdict picking case-weighted and the concentration diagnostic as decisive after seeing results, rather than applying the preregistered rule as written: "supported only when... the H-P effect does not disappear under H-C," judged over summaries the prereg itself fixes as case-weighted and macro-by-song, with concentration explicitly registered as descriptive, not a primary gate. Case-weighted (-47) and macro-by-song (+0.1pp) disagree on sign for H-C vs T, so the verdict is now "not supported, mixed" rather than "rejected, on balance," and no longer cites concentration or the (differently-scoped) H-C-vs-V0 LOO figure to break the tie. Also softens "provably... for any chain" for the tie-break-agreement claim: ascending candidate ordering (ADR-0019) explains why the DP-based and lowest-string-number tie-breaks agreeing is plausible and stable, but the DP resolves ties by backward parent-pointer propagation from the chain's last note, not a local comparison at the origin candidate, so ordering alone doesn't prove agreement for an arbitrary chain. The exhaustive zero-disagreement check across all 12,520 Ambiguous T/H-P/H-C rows in the real corpus is the evidence actually used. No numbers change; this is interpretation and doc precision only. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01FNwMUpsNpVM5PsubJLp2kj
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‎docs/audit/2026-09-technique-origin-state.md‎

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@@ -428,17 +428,22 @@ in this rerun, the corrected `deterministic_restricted_string`'s pick and the
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original reporting's `estimate.strings().first()` (the lowest surviving
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string number) agree on literally every row — zero disagreements, and the
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same holds for all 10,293 `Ambiguous` T rows, which is why T's own count
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never moved either. `Tuning::candidates` is ordered by ascending string
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number by construction (ADR-0019; `core/src/event.rs:548-552`), and
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`Chain::v1` builds every candidate list from it, so the production DP's own
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"lowest candidate index" tie-break *is* "lowest string number" for any chain
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this experiment builds — provably, not just in this corpus. The DP-based
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rewrite is still the right implementation (it is what the production solver
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actually does, rather than an unproven assumption that happened to match
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it), but it was always a no-op for the *reported string*, for T and for H-P/
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H-C alike. The only defect this correction fixes — and the only thing that
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ever moved these numbers — is `anchor_distance` being scored on a tie that
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the registered rule leaves unbroken.
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never moved either — 12,520 `Ambiguous` rows checked across all three
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regimes, zero disagreements. `Tuning::candidates` is ordered by ascending
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string number by construction
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(ADR-0019; `core/src/event.rs:548-552`), which is why this agreement is
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plausible and should be stable rather than a fluke of this corpus — but the
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DP's own tie-break is resolved by backward parent-pointer propagation from
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the chain's last note, not by a local comparison at the origin candidate, so
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candidate ordering alone is not a general proof that the two rules coincide
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for an arbitrary chain; the exhaustive corpus-wide agreement above, not a
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theorem, is the evidence used here. The DP-based rewrite is still the right
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implementation (it is what the production solver actually does, rather than
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an unproven assumption that happened to match it), but on this corpus it was
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always a no-op for the *reported string*, for T and for H-P/H-C alike. The
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only defect this correction fixes — and the only thing that ever moved these
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numbers — is `anchor_distance` being scored on a tie that the registered
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rule leaves unbroken.
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This correction was validated with the corpus it needed: `cargo fmt --all --
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--check`, the full `griff-constraint-lab` test suite (172 tests across every
@@ -474,20 +479,19 @@ No production behavior, projection, census, corpus fingerprint or
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1,496 cases, worsens none, is positive across 69 song keys and never reverses
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under leave-one-song-out. J shows that hard joint equality alone does not
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identify the imported origin string.
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4. **D — hand adds independent causal signal: rejected, on balance.** H-P is
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unambiguously positive over T (`14,729` to `13,441`: `1,849` better /
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`561` worse). H-C, corrected, is close to a wash against T rather than
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clearly negative: 47 fewer exact cases case-weighted (`13,394` to
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`13,441`) and behind it in the concentration view (`2,392` to `2,405`),
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but 0.1 points *ahead* of it macro-by-song (`48.1%` to `48.0%`), and every
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leave-one-song-out omission still leaves H-C ahead of V0. The
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case-weighted and concentration readings — the metrics this document
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otherwise treats as primary — still call it against H-C, so the rejection
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stands, but on a margin of a few dozen cases, where the two corrections
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made to this figure have each moved the sign of at least one reading. That
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is closer than the original "does not survive endogenous replay" framing
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suggested, and is worth an explicit second look rather than taking the
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label on faith.
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4. **D — hand adds independent causal signal: not supported, mixed under the
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preregistered summaries.** H-P is unambiguously positive over T (`14,729`
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to `13,441`: `1,849` better / `561` worse). Endogenous H-C does not
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consistently improve on T across the two prereg'd summary types (above:
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"All summaries are case-weighted and macro-by-song"): it is 47 fewer exact
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cases case-weighted (`13,394` to `13,441`) but 0.1 points *ahead* of T
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macro-by-song (`48.1%` to `48.0%`) — the two registered aggregates
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disagree on sign. The rule is "supported only when... the H-P effect does
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not disappear under H-C"; with no single registered aggregate cleanly
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deciding that, the condition is not met, so no promotion follows. The
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signature-concentration audit also slightly favors T (`2,392` to `2,405`),
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but it is registered above as "a concentration diagnostic, not a primary
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gate," so it is reported for context and not used to break this tie.
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5. **E — safe hard obligation: rejected.** Every transparent regime emits many
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wrong Known strings; the pinned 8/38 cohorts demonstrate the downstream
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consequence directly.

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