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Add 2025 DiD research to roadmap
Near-Term additions: - Triple Difference (DDD) Estimators (Ortiz-Villavicencio & Sant'Anna 2025) - Pre-Trends Power Analysis (Roth 2022, complements Honest DiD) Medium-Term additions: - Doubly Robust DiD + Synthetic Control (Sun, Xie & Zhang 2025) - Causal Duration Analysis with DiD (Deaner & Ku 2025) These represent the latest methodological advances in the DiD literature.
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ROADMAP.md

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@@ -52,6 +52,27 @@ Two-stage approach gaining traction in applied work. First residualizes outcomes
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**Reference**: Gardner (2022). *Working Paper*.
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### Triple Difference (DDD) Estimators
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Extends DiD to settings requiring a third differencing dimension. Common DDD implementations are invalid when covariates are needed for identification.
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- Regression adjustment, IPW, and doubly robust DDD estimators
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- Staggered adoption support with multiple comparison groups
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- Proper covariate integration (naive "two DiD difference" approaches fail)
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- Bias reduction and precision gains over standard approaches
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**Reference**: [Ortiz-Villavicencio & Sant'Anna (2025)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.09942). *Working Paper*. R package: `triplediff`.
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### Pre-Trends Power Analysis
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Assess whether pre-trends tests have adequate power to detect meaningful parallel trends violations. Complements our Honest DiD implementation.
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- Minimum detectable violation size for pre-trends tests
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- Visualization of power against various violation magnitudes
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- Integration with existing parallel trends diagnostics
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**Reference**: [Roth (2022)](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aeri.20210236). *AER: Insights*. R package: `pretrends`.
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### Enhanced Visualization
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- Synthetic control weight visualization (bar chart of unit weights)
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**Reference**: [Wooldridge (2023)](https://academic.oup.com/ectj/article/26/3/C31/7250479). *The Econometrics Journal*.
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### Doubly Robust DiD + Synthetic Control
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Unified framework combining DiD and synthetic control with doubly robust identification—valid under *either* parallel trends or synthetic control assumptions.
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- ATT identified under parallel trends OR group-level SC condition
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- Semiparametric estimation framework
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- Multiplier bootstrap for valid inference under either assumption
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- Strengthens credibility by avoiding the DiD vs. SC trade-off
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**Reference**: [Sun, Xie & Zhang (2025)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.11375). *Working Paper*.
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### Causal Duration Analysis with DiD
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Extends DiD to duration/survival outcomes where standard methods fail (hazard rates, time-to-event).
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- Duration analogue of parallel trends on hazard rates
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- Avoids distributional assumptions and hazard function specification
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- Visual and formal pre-trends assessment for duration data
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- Handles absorbing states approaching probability bounds
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**Reference**: [Deaner & Ku (2025)](https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2025/program/paper/k77Kh8iS). *AEA Conference Paper*.
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## Long-Term Research Directions (v2.0+)

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