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1 | 1 | # Geographic Disease Spread Model |
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3 | 3 | A fast-spreading pathogen outbreak geo-model with no exposed/latency period. |
4 | | -The model simulates how quarantine compliance rates at the population level affect outbreak dynamics in a real geo mapped environment, |
| 4 | +The model simulates how quarantine compliance rates at the population level affect outbreak dynamics in a real geo mapped environment, |
5 | 5 | analyzing changes in infection, death and immunity rates here the the dots represent not population directly but sets of highly populated areas. |
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7 | 7 | **It showcases:** |
8 | 8 | - **Disease spread on a real geographic map**Disease spread using real geographic proximity(not grid cells) and agent movement is bounded within the Eurasian continent. |
9 | | -- **Two-threshold quarantine system** - quarantine triggers when infected |
10 | | - count exceeds an upper threshold and lifts only when it drops below a |
11 | | - lower one, preventing quarantine from lifting the moment a single agent |
12 | | - recovers |
13 | | -- **Compliance rate** - a configurable fraction of citizens actually follow |
| 9 | +- **Two-threshold quarantine system** - quarantine triggers when infected |
| 10 | + count exceeds an upper threshold and lifts only when it drops below a |
| 11 | + lower one, preventing quarantine from lifting the moment a single agent |
| 12 | + recovers |
| 13 | +- **Compliance rate** - a configurable fraction of citizens actually follow |
14 | 14 | quarantine orders, attempting to simulate real-world partial adherence. The rest |
15 | 15 | keep moving freely by not following quarantine instructions. |
16 | 16 | - **Geographic flee behavior** — compliant healthy agents moves away from quarantined zones during lockdown. |
17 | | -- **Infected agents freeze** — simulating a government isolating/quarantining an infected |
| 17 | +- **Infected agents freeze** — simulating a government isolating/quarantining an infected |
18 | 18 | zone. Non-compliant agents ignore this entirely. |
19 | 19 | - **Emergence of different outcomes** — combination of different configurations produce dramatically different outbreak curves. |
20 | 20 |
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21 | 21 | ## How It Works |
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23 | 23 | 1. **Initialization** — citizens are placed randomly(more or less realistically) on a geographic map using mesa-geo. A configurable number are set initially as infected. |
24 | | -2. **Disease Spread** — each step, healthy agents check their neighbours within a certain proximity for infected if its within the set infection radius, if there's an infection there is a configurable chance of transmission. |
| 24 | +2. **Disease Spread** — each step, healthy agents check their neighbours within a certain proximity for infected if its within the set infection radius, if there's an infection there is a configurable chance of transmission. |
25 | 25 | No latency period — infection is immediate on contact,chance of getting an infection is 60%. |
26 | | -3. **Quarantine System** — the model monitors total infected count each step. |
27 | | - When it exceeds the upper threshold, quarantine activates. It only lifts |
| 26 | +3. **Quarantine System** — the model monitors total infected count each step. |
| 27 | + When it exceeds the upper threshold, quarantine activates. It only lifts |
28 | 28 | when infected drops below the lower threshold. |
29 | 29 | 4. **Agent Behaviour during Quarantine:** |
30 | 30 | - Compliant agents - flee away from all infected agents. |
31 | 31 | - Non-compliant agents - move randomly, ignoring quarantine |
32 | 32 | - Infected agents - compliant ones, freeze in place, simulating isolation or a lockdowned zone |
33 | | -5. **Recovery** — after 10 steps of infection, agents recover to full |
34 | | - immunity or die with the probability of 10%. Dead agents remain |
| 33 | +5. **Recovery** — after 10 steps of infection, agents recover to full |
| 34 | + immunity or die with the probability of 10%. Dead agents remain |
35 | 35 | on the grid as red circles(this is an intentional mechanic) as a visual indicator to assess how compliance affects the model. |
36 | 36 |
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37 | 37 | ## Interesting Cases to Observe |
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