Climate Index and monthly SLH modeling GitHub #25
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Another important recent paper is “Evaluation and prediction of the Effects of Planetary Orbital Variations to Earth’s Temperature Changes” https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/17538947.2025.2487058?needAccess=true
So
How they come up with the 8.26% for the lunar orbit is fascinating. I think they are finding a pattern match in day-to-day measurements separated by fairly long time spans but it appears to be pinned to vernal equinoxes. The common sense (perhaps overly naive) idea would be to attribute this simply to weather variability, yet they specifically state it’s a lunar cause.
The way they substantiate this is :
Need to take this paper seriously. 7 co-authors from universities in China and affiliations with U. of Toronto, U. of Hawaii (at Manoa - ENSO modeling hotspot), USC, NASA JPL, U. of Wisconsin at Milwaukee, and Pohang Univ in Korea. |
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The other paper mentioned at GeoEnergyMath.com is "Observing ENSO-modulated tides from space" All the tidal cycles are impacted by ENSO. The site they use is in the Solomon Islands
Each of the daily/diurnal tidal factors has a direct representation as a long-period tidal factor (fortnightly or monthly), so my idea is that the long-period factors interact with the annual to modulate these daily factors. It is also manifested as ENSO, in places close to the heart of ENSO, such as the Solomon Islands. |
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re: https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2025/09/time-and-tide-gauges-wait-for-no-voortman In regard to determining sea-level shifts, the first analysis should be in a comprehensive understanding of the natural SLH variation. To take an example, consider locations in the Baltic Sea and then northerly into the Gulf of Bothnia separating Norway and Finland. Begin by detrending the data and fitting the erratic cycles to tidal periods, concurrently cross-validating the results in the dashed test interval — the graphs shown below demonstrate high significance across the sets and over the interval. Yet, look at the long-term trends — the northernmost spot Furuogrund shows a decreasing trend, while the southernmost spot Aarhus in Denmark is trending up. This is commonly understood to be due to glacial rebound, with the effect intuitively being historically stronger the more north (i.e. colder) the measurement siting. To fully discriminate the climate change acceleration from the glacial rebound deceleration is not the easiest challenge in the world, but being able to precisely isolate the natural tidal cycles will obviously help. To make it even more challenging is that the tidal cycles can show periods in the multidecadal range. As far as I can tell, no one is doing the long-period tidal analysis correctly, if at all, even though the results shown above demonstrate predictive capability. The challenge to anyone out there is to duplicate the results. Fortunately, it doesn’t take a lot of computing power. From https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272065019_Baltic_sea_level_low-frequency_variability The authors claim that the variation is linked to NAO, yet the peaks shown above are all aliased to tidal periods modulated by annual cycles. |
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Near-Term Future Sea-Level Projections Supported by Extrapolation of Tide-Gauge Observations
This is a good set of criteria for exclusion. |
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continued from https://gist.github.com/pukpr/0b7ac85fad1ea36f65a9b50d6c30958b#file-lte_mlr-py
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Wismar #8
{
{ |
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Standard Regression outperforms PySINDy. |
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I created a new site for modeling of natural climate change a la various climate indices (ENSO, AMO, QBO, etc) and monthly sea-level height (SLH) at: https://pukpr.github.io/results/image_results.html
This is more dedicated to showing results and using the tools at github to organize and maintain modeling output artifacts, including tables and charts. The source control repo is at https://pukpr.github.io/pukpr.github.io
More info of the motivation at https://geoenergymath.com/2025/09/03/simpler-models-can-outperform-deep-learning-at-climate-prediction/
Could create a github.io site for the Azimuth Project as well, where according to the site https://docs.github.com/en/pages/getting-started-with-github-pages/creating-a-github-pages-site, this is free feature for organizations (I pay for my github subscription)
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