diff --git a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md index 4c0c3f8e..2c8652b6 100644 --- a/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md +++ b/docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ Financial results are calculated using the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa). -Key case study results include LCOE = $81.1/MWh and CAPEX = $5000/kW. +Key case study results include LCOE = $79.7/MWh and CAPEX = $5200/kW. [Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface. @@ -50,29 +50,29 @@ in source code for the full set of inputs. | Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.6M (all-in cost, including 15% contingency) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). | | Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation | $1900/kW | US DOE, 2021. | | Discount Rate | 12% | Typical discount rates for high-risk projects may be 12–15% | -| Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 5.6% | Typical debt annual interest rate | +| Inflated Bond Interest Rate | 8% | Typical debt annual interest rate | | Fraction of Investment in Bonds (percent debt vs. equity) | 60% | Approximate remaining percentage of CAPEX with $1 billion sponsor equity per Matson, 2024. Note that this source says that Fervo ultimately wants to target "15% sponsor equity, 15% bridge loan, and 70% construction to term loans", but this case study does not attempt to model that capital structure. | | Exploration Capital Cost | $30M | Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects | | Investment Tax Credit Rate (ITC) | 30% | Same as 400 MWe case study (Fervo_Project_Cape-3) | -| Construction Years | 1 | Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) | +| Construction Years | 5 | 2023–2028 | ### Technical & Engineering Parameters -| Parameter | Input Value(s) | Source | -|-------------------------------|----------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| -| Plant Lifetime | 30 years | 30-year well life per Fervo Energy, 2025 (Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts). | -| Construction time | 1 year | Calibrated to a 2–6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025). Note that the Inflation Rate During Construction parameter hedges against potential construction delays. | -| Well diameter | 9⅝ inches | Next standard size up from 7", implied by announcement of "increasing casing diameter" | -| Flow Rate per Production Well | 107 kg/s | Fercho et al, 2025 models reservoir performance using 100 kg/s per well. The announced increased casing diameter implies higher flow rates, so the case study uses the maximum flow rate achieved at Cape Station of 107 kg/s per Fervo Energy, 2024. | -| Number of Doublets | 59 | Estimate based on extrapolation from previous case studies including [Project Red](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023) and [Fervo_Project_Cape-3](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-3) | -| Number of Fractures per well | 102 | Estimate. (Note this is not a direct GEOPHIRES input parameter but was used to calculate other case study GEOPHIRES input parameters such as reservoir volume.) | -| Fracture Separation | 18 m | Per Norbeck et al, 2024: lateral length is 4700 ft = 1432 m. Dividing 1432 by 80 = ~18 m fracture spacing. | -| Fracture Geometry | 165.3 m × 165.3 m (Square) | Extrapolated from 30 million ft² fracture surface area per well per Fercho et al, 2025. | -| Reservoir Volume | 5,919,217,617 m³ | Calculated from fracture area (27,324.09 m²) × fracture separation (18 m) × targeted number of fractures per well (102) | -| Water Loss Rate | 15% | Water loss rate is conservatively estimated to be between 10 and 20%. Other estimates and some simulations may suggest a significantly lower water loss rate than this conservative estimate. See [Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts](https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/) (Fervo Energy, 2025). | -| Maximum Drawdown | 0.0153 | Tuned to keep minimum net electricity generation ≥ 500 MWe and thermal breakthrough requiring redrilling occurring every 5–10 years | -| Reservoir Impedance | 0.001565 GPa.s/m³ | Yields ~15% initial pumping power/net installed power | -| Injection Temperature | 53.6 ℃ | Calibrated with GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temperature (Beckers & McCabe, 2019). Close to upper bound of Project Red injection temperatures (75–125℉; 23.89–51.67℃) (Norbeck & Latimer, 2023). | +| Parameter | Input Value(s) | Source | +|-------------------------------|------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| +| Plant Lifetime | 30 years | 30-year well life per Fervo Energy, 2025 (Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts). | +| Construction time | 5 years | 2023–2028 | +| Well diameter | 9⅝ inches (OD) | Next standard size up from 7", implied by announcement of "increasing casing diameter" | +| Flow Rate per Production Well | 120 kg/s | Fercho et al, 2025 models reservoir performance using 100 kg/s per well. The announced increased casing diameter implies higher flow rates, so the case study uses the maximum flow rate achieved at Cape Station of 107 kg/s per Fervo Energy, 2024. | +| Number of Doublets | 50 | Estimate based on extrapolation from previous case studies including [Project Red](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Norbeck_Latimer_2023) and [Fervo_Project_Cape-3](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-3) | +| Number of Fractures per well | 200 | 25 stages with 8 clusters per stage | +| Fracture Separation | 7.315 m | Based on number of fractures per lateral and lateral length | +| Fracture Geometry | 186.16 m diameter (Circular) | Approximates ellipsoidal fracture with 228 meter height and 152 meter width | +| Reservoir Volume | 3,981,853,090 m³ | Calculated from fracture area × fracture separation × number of fractures per well | +| Water Loss Rate | 15% | Water loss rate is conservatively estimated to be between 10 and 20%. Other estimates and some simulations may suggest a significantly lower water loss rate than this conservative estimate. See [Geothermal Mythbusting: Water Use and Impacts](https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/) (Fervo Energy, 2025). | +| Maximum Drawdown | 0.0153 | Tuned to keep minimum net electricity generation ≥ 500 MWe and thermal breakthrough requiring redrilling occurring every 5–10 years | +| Productivity Index | 2.494 kg/s/bar | NREL ATB conservative scenario. Yields ~10% initial pumping power/net installed power | +| Injection Temperature | 53.6 ℃ | Calibrated with GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temperature (Beckers & McCabe, 2019). Close to upper bound of Project Red injection temperatures (75–125℉; 23.89–51.67℃) (Norbeck & Latimer, 2023). | ## Results @@ -83,23 +83,23 @@ in source code for the complete results. | Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | |------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| -| LCOE | $81.1/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | -| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.66B | | | -| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5000/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | -| Well Drilling and Completion Costs | $3.96M/well; $467.75M total | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. | -| Stimulation Costs | $4.6M/well; $542.8M total | $4.65M/well (based on 46%:54% drilling:stimulation cost ratio) | (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) | -| WACC | 8.3% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. | -| After-tax IRR | 27.55% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | +| LCOE | $79.7/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 | +| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.8B | | | +| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5200/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. | +| Well Drilling and Completion Costs | $4.46M/well; $446M total | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. | +| Stimulation Costs | $4.6M/well; $483M total | $4.65M/well (based on 46%:54% drilling:stimulation cost ratio) | (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) | +| WACC | 9.22% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. | +| After-tax IRR | 22.09% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects | ### Technical & Engineering Results | Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source | |-------------------------------------------------|--------------|----------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| -| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 504 MW | 500 MW | Fervo Energy, 2025. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. | -| Maximum Net Electricity Generation | 537 MW | | | -| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 615 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. | -| Number of times redrilling | 3 | 3–6 | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start | -| Average Production Temperature | 199℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | Trent, 2024; Norbeck et al, 2024. | +| Minimum Net Electricity Generation | 505 MW | 500 MW | Fervo Energy, 2025. The 500 MW PPA is interpreted to mean that Cape Station's net electricity generation must never fall below 500 MWe. | +| Maximum Net Electricity Generation | 535 MW | | | +| Maximum Total Electricity Generation | 587 MW | | Actual maximum total generation may be bounded or constrained by modular power plant design not modeled in this case study. For example, a modular design with 50MW units may constrain maximum total generation to 600 MW. | +| Number of times redrilling | 2 | 2–5 | Redrilling expected to be required within 5–10 years of project start | +| Average Production Temperature | 200℃ | 204℃, 190.6–198.6℃ (optimal plant operating range) | Trent, 2024; Norbeck et al, 2024. | | Total fracture surface area per production well | 2.787×10⁶ m² | 2.787×10⁶ m² (30 million ft² per well) | Fercho et al, 2025. | ## Uncertainty & Sensitivities diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out index e85f5511..94f6ea1d 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.out @@ -4,20 +4,20 @@ Simulation Metadata ---------------------- - GEOPHIRES Version: 3.10.22 - Simulation Date: 2025-12-15 - Simulation Time: 09:15 - Calculation Time: 1.777 sec + GEOPHIRES Version: 3.10.24 + Simulation Date: 2025-12-22 + Simulation Time: 12:52 + Calculation Time: 1.760 sec ***SUMMARY OF RESULTS*** End-Use Option: Electricity - Average Net Electricity Production: 532.53 MW - Electricity breakeven price: 8.11 cents/kWh - Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD - Number of production wells: 59 - Number of injection wells: 59 - Flowrate per production well: 107.0 kg/sec + Average Net Electricity Production: 532.60 MW + Electricity breakeven price: 7.97 cents/kWh + Total CAPEX: 2802.85 MUSD + Number of production wells: 50 + Number of injection wells: 50 + Flowrate per production well: 120.0 kg/sec Well depth: 2.6 kilometer Geothermal gradient: 74 degC/km @@ -27,30 +27,30 @@ Simulation Metadata Economic Model = SAM Single Owner PPA Real Discount Rate: 12.00 % Nominal Discount Rate: 14.58 % - WACC: 8.30 % + WACC: 9.22 % Project lifetime: 30 yr Capacity factor: 90.0 % - Project NPV: 483.35 MUSD - After-tax IRR: 27.55 % - Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.45 - Project MOIC: 4.20 - Project Payback Period: 2.33 yr - Estimated Jobs Created: 1300 + Project NPV: 238.22 MUSD + After-tax IRR: 22.09 % + Project VIR=PI=PIR: 1.35 + Project MOIC: 4.22 + Project Payback Period: 6.06 yr + Estimated Jobs Created: 1245 ***ENGINEERING PARAMETERS*** - Number of Production Wells: 59 - Number of Injection Wells: 59 + Number of Production Wells: 50 + Number of Injection Wells: 50 Well depth: 2.6 kilometer Water loss rate: 15.0 % Pump efficiency: 80.0 % Injection temperature: 56.6 degC Production Wellbore heat transmission calculated with Ramey's model - Average production well temperature drop: 0.6 degC - Flowrate per production well: 107.0 kg/sec - Injection well casing ID: 9.625 in - Production well casing ID: 9.625 in - Number of times redrilling: 3 + Average production well temperature drop: 0.4 degC + Flowrate per production well: 120.0 kg/sec + Injection well casing ID: 8.535 in + Production well casing ID: 8.535 in + Number of times redrilling: 2 Power plant type: Supercritical ORC @@ -65,14 +65,18 @@ Simulation Metadata Reservoir Model = Multiple Parallel Fractures Model (Gringarten) Bottom-hole temperature: 201.72 degC - Fracture model = Square - Well separation: fracture height: 165.30 meter - Fracture area: 27324.09 m**2 + Fracture model = Circular fracture with known diameter + Well separation: fracture diameter: 186.16 meter + Fracture area: 27218.40 m**2 Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input - Number of fractures: 12036 - Fracture separation: 18.00 meter - Reservoir volume: 5919217617 m**3 - Reservoir impedance: 0.0016 GPa.s/m**3 + Number of fractures: 20000 + Fracture separation: 7.32 meter + Reservoir volume: 3981853090 m**3 + Reservoir hydrostatic pressure: 24497.62 kPa + Plant outlet pressure: 6894.76 kPa + Production wellhead pressure: 2240.80 kPa + Productivity Index: 2.49 kg/sec/bar + Injectivity Index: 3.02 kg/sec/bar Reservoir density: 2800.00 kg/m**3 Reservoir thermal conductivity: 3.05 W/m/K Reservoir heat capacity: 790.00 J/kg/K @@ -80,59 +84,57 @@ Simulation Metadata ***RESERVOIR SIMULATION RESULTS*** - Maximum Production Temperature: 199.6 degC - Average Production Temperature: 199.0 degC - Minimum Production Temperature: 195.4 degC - Initial Production Temperature: 198.2 degC - Average Reservoir Heat Extraction: 3761.51 MW + Maximum Production Temperature: 200.0 degC + Average Production Temperature: 199.6 degC + Minimum Production Temperature: 195.9 degC + Initial Production Temperature: 198.7 degC + Average Reservoir Heat Extraction: 3591.43 MW Production Wellbore Heat Transmission Model = Ramey Model - Average Production Well Temperature Drop: 0.6 degC - Total Average Pressure Drop: 8521.8 kPa - Average Injection Well Pressure Drop: 600.9 kPa - Average Reservoir Pressure Drop: 10344.9 kPa - Average Production Well Pressure Drop: 504.2 kPa - Average Buoyancy Pressure Drop: -2928.2 kPa + Average Production Well Temperature Drop: 0.4 degC + Average Injection Well Pump Pressure Drop: -1721.2 kPa + Average Production Well Pump Pressure Drop: 6106.7 kPa ***CAPITAL COSTS (M$)*** - Drilling and completion costs: 467.75 MUSD - Drilling and completion costs per well: 3.96 MUSD - Stimulation costs: 542.80 MUSD - Surface power plant costs: 1504.05 MUSD - Field gathering system costs: 56.44 MUSD - Total surface equipment costs: 1560.49 MUSD + Drilling and completion costs: 445.95 MUSD + Drilling and completion costs per well: 4.46 MUSD + Stimulation costs: 483.00 MUSD + Surface power plant costs: 1437.02 MUSD + Field gathering system costs: 42.53 MUSD + Total surface equipment costs: 1479.55 MUSD Exploration costs: 30.00 MUSD - Overnight Capital Cost: 2601.04 MUSD - Inflation costs during construction: 59.82 MUSD - Total CAPEX: 2660.87 MUSD + Overnight Capital Cost: 2438.50 MUSD + Interest during construction: 112.38 MUSD + Inflation costs during construction: 251.97 MUSD + Total CAPEX: 2802.85 MUSD ***OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (M$/yr)*** - Wellfield maintenance costs: 6.20 MUSD/yr - Power plant maintenance costs: 25.43 MUSD/yr - Water costs: 24.86 MUSD/yr - Redrilling costs: 101.05 MUSD/yr - Total operating and maintenance costs: 157.54 MUSD/yr + Wellfield maintenance costs: 5.83 MUSD/yr + Power plant maintenance costs: 24.40 MUSD/yr + Water costs: 23.63 MUSD/yr + Redrilling costs: 61.93 MUSD/yr + Total operating and maintenance costs: 115.79 MUSD/yr ***SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS*** Initial geofluid availability: 0.19 MW/(kg/s) - Maximum Total Electricity Generation: 614.60 MW - Average Total Electricity Generation: 610.21 MW - Minimum Total Electricity Generation: 583.15 MW - Initial Total Electricity Generation: 604.35 MW - Maximum Net Electricity Generation: 537.14 MW - Average Net Electricity Generation: 532.53 MW - Minimum Net Electricity Generation: 504.44 MW - Initial Net Electricity Generation: 526.63 MW - Average Annual Total Electricity Generation: 4810.97 GWh - Average Annual Net Electricity Generation: 4198.60 GWh - Initial pumping power/net installed power: 14.76 % - Average Pumping Power: 77.67 MW - Heat to Power Conversion Efficiency: 14.16 % + Maximum Total Electricity Generation: 587.21 MW + Average Total Electricity Generation: 584.65 MW + Minimum Total Electricity Generation: 557.54 MW + Initial Total Electricity Generation: 577.93 MW + Maximum Net Electricity Generation: 535.25 MW + Average Net Electricity Generation: 532.60 MW + Minimum Net Electricity Generation: 504.81 MW + Initial Net Electricity Generation: 525.81 MW + Average Annual Total Electricity Generation: 4609.46 GWh + Average Annual Net Electricity Generation: 4199.16 GWh + Initial pumping power/net installed power: 9.91 % + Average Pumping Power: 52.04 MW + Heat to Power Conversion Efficiency: 14.83 % ************************************************************ * HEATING, COOLING AND/OR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE * @@ -140,36 +142,36 @@ Simulation Metadata YEAR THERMAL GEOFLUID PUMP NET FIRST LAW DRAWDOWN TEMPERATURE POWER POWER EFFICIENCY (degC) (MW) (MW) (%) - 1 1.0000 198.22 77.7286 526.6263 14.0769 - 2 1.0051 199.24 77.6662 534.3539 14.1818 - 3 1.0061 199.42 77.6547 535.7721 14.2009 - 4 1.0065 199.52 77.6489 536.5044 14.2108 - 5 1.0068 199.57 77.6474 536.9145 14.2163 - 6 1.0067 199.55 77.6626 536.7091 14.2133 - 7 1.0054 199.29 77.7347 534.6638 14.1850 - 8 1.0012 198.47 77.9449 528.2545 14.0960 - 9 0.9919 196.61 78.4108 513.7990 13.8924 - 10 1.0040 199.02 77.6265 532.7400 14.1607 - 11 1.0057 199.35 77.6184 535.2509 14.1944 - 12 1.0063 199.48 77.6077 536.2282 14.2076 - 13 1.0067 199.55 77.5951 536.8041 14.2155 - 14 1.0068 199.58 77.5874 537.0016 14.2182 - 15 1.0063 199.46 77.6101 536.1193 14.2061 - 16 1.0038 198.97 77.7249 532.3053 14.1535 - 17 0.9974 197.70 78.0349 522.3915 14.0153 - 18 1.0000 198.22 77.5160 526.8389 14.0826 - 19 1.0051 199.24 77.5030 534.5170 14.1861 - 20 1.0061 199.42 77.4920 535.9348 14.2052 - 21 1.0065 199.52 77.4831 536.6702 14.2152 - 22 1.0068 199.57 77.4784 537.0835 14.2208 - 23 1.0067 199.55 77.4911 536.8806 14.2179 - 24 1.0054 199.29 77.5620 534.8365 14.1896 - 25 1.0012 198.47 77.7729 528.4265 14.1006 - 26 0.9919 196.61 78.2420 513.9678 13.8970 - 27 1.0040 199.02 77.4599 532.9067 14.1651 - 28 1.0057 199.35 77.4589 535.4103 14.1987 - 29 1.0063 199.48 77.4584 536.3775 14.2116 - 30 1.0067 199.55 77.4587 536.9405 14.2191 + 1 1.0000 198.72 52.1180 525.8137 14.7370 + 2 1.0043 199.56 52.0843 531.9471 14.8204 + 3 1.0051 199.72 52.0781 533.0868 14.8358 + 4 1.0055 199.80 52.0748 533.6796 14.8438 + 5 1.0057 199.86 52.0727 534.0717 14.8491 + 6 1.0060 199.90 52.0710 534.3634 14.8530 + 7 1.0061 199.93 52.0700 534.5822 14.8560 + 8 1.0062 199.96 52.0687 534.7812 14.8587 + 9 1.0063 199.97 52.0692 534.8739 14.8599 + 10 1.0064 199.98 52.0698 534.9490 14.8609 + 11 1.0032 199.36 52.1720 530.3604 14.7977 + 12 0.9881 196.36 52.6497 508.4438 14.4903 + 13 1.0040 199.52 52.0553 531.6477 14.8168 + 14 1.0050 199.70 52.0388 532.9929 14.8351 + 15 1.0054 199.79 52.0162 533.6581 14.8444 + 16 1.0057 199.85 51.9945 534.0937 14.8505 + 17 1.0059 199.89 51.9788 534.4119 14.8550 + 18 1.0061 199.92 51.9706 534.6432 14.8582 + 19 1.0062 199.95 51.9663 534.8763 14.8614 + 20 1.0063 199.96 51.9683 534.9114 14.8619 + 21 1.0065 200.00 51.9649 535.2004 14.8658 + 22 1.0042 199.54 52.0416 531.8445 14.8196 + 23 0.9924 197.20 52.4201 514.6962 14.5804 + 24 1.0037 199.46 51.9662 531.3156 14.8136 + 25 1.0049 199.68 51.9663 532.9167 14.8351 + 26 1.0054 199.78 51.9664 533.6218 14.8446 + 27 1.0057 199.84 51.9666 534.0623 14.8505 + 28 1.0059 199.89 51.9667 534.3781 14.8547 + 29 1.0061 199.92 51.9670 534.6123 14.8579 + 30 1.0062 199.95 51.9661 534.8541 14.8611 ******************************************************************* @@ -178,273 +180,273 @@ Simulation Metadata YEAR ELECTRICITY HEAT RESERVOIR PERCENTAGE OF PROVIDED EXTRACTED HEAT CONTENT TOTAL HEAT MINED (GWh/year) (GWh/year) (10^15 J) (%) - 1 4192.9 29636.9 1793.40 5.62 - 2 4219.2 29728.1 1686.38 11.25 - 3 4227.2 29755.6 1579.26 16.89 - 4 4231.6 29771.1 1472.08 22.53 - 5 4232.9 29775.6 1364.89 28.17 - 6 4225.2 29749.9 1257.79 33.80 - 7 4194.0 29644.4 1151.07 39.42 - 8 4114.4 29374.5 1045.32 44.99 - 9 4101.4 29325.8 939.75 50.54 - 10 4212.2 29702.5 832.82 56.17 - 11 4224.2 29744.1 725.74 61.80 - 12 4230.1 29764.4 618.59 67.44 - 13 4233.3 29775.3 511.40 73.09 - 14 4231.4 29768.8 404.23 78.73 - 15 4214.5 29711.6 297.27 84.36 - 16 4162.9 29536.5 190.94 89.95 - 17 4055.6 29171.2 85.92 95.48 - 18 4194.3 29636.9 -20.77 101.09 - 19 4220.5 29728.1 -127.79 106.73 - 20 4228.5 29755.6 -234.91 112.36 - 21 4233.0 29771.1 -342.09 118.00 - 22 4234.2 29775.6 -449.28 123.65 - 23 4226.6 29749.9 -556.38 129.28 - 24 4195.3 29644.4 -663.10 134.90 - 25 4115.7 29374.5 -768.85 140.46 - 26 4102.7 29325.8 -874.42 146.02 - 27 4213.5 29702.5 -981.35 151.65 - 28 4225.4 29744.1 -1088.43 157.28 - 29 4231.2 29764.4 -1195.58 162.92 - 30 4234.3 29775.2 -1302.77 168.56 + 1 4178.0 28242.9 1176.52 7.95 + 2 4199.0 28315.7 1074.58 15.93 + 3 4205.4 28337.9 972.56 23.91 + 4 4209.2 28351.0 870.50 31.90 + 5 4211.8 28360.2 768.40 39.88 + 6 4213.8 28367.1 666.28 47.87 + 7 4215.6 28373.4 564.14 55.86 + 8 4216.2 28375.6 461.98 63.86 + 9 4218.3 28382.8 359.81 71.85 + 10 4204.6 28336.0 257.80 79.83 + 11 4115.4 28030.8 156.89 87.73 + 12 4150.9 28149.1 55.55 95.65 + 13 4197.6 28310.1 -46.37 103.63 + 14 4205.0 28335.1 -148.37 111.61 + 15 4209.2 28349.2 -250.43 119.59 + 16 4212.1 28358.9 -352.52 127.58 + 17 4214.3 28366.1 -454.64 135.57 + 18 4216.1 28372.4 -556.78 143.56 + 19 4217.0 28375.3 -658.93 151.55 + 20 4218.9 28381.9 -761.11 159.55 + 21 4210.6 28353.7 -863.18 167.53 + 22 4141.7 28118.5 -964.41 175.45 + 23 4125.6 28060.2 -1065.42 183.35 + 24 4196.4 28303.4 -1167.32 191.33 + 25 4204.6 28332.0 -1269.31 199.31 + 26 4208.9 28347.2 -1371.36 207.29 + 27 4211.8 28357.5 -1473.45 215.28 + 28 4214.0 28365.0 -1575.56 223.27 + 29 4215.8 28371.3 -1677.70 231.26 + 30 4216.9 28375.2 -1779.85 239.25 *************************** * SAM CASH FLOW PROFILE * *************************** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 Year 21 Year 22 Year 23 Year 24 Year 25 Year 26 Year 27 Year 28 Year 29 Year 30 +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + Year -4 Year -3 Year -2 Year -1 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 Year 21 Year 22 Year 23 Year 24 Year 25 Year 26 Year 27 Year 28 Year 29 Year 30 CONSTRUCTION -Capital expenditure schedule [construction] (%) 100.0 -Overnight capital expenditure [construction] ($) -2,601,042,401 +Capital expenditure schedule [construction] (%) 1.40 2.70 13.70 27.40 54.80 +Overnight capital expenditure [construction] ($) -34,139,037 -65,839,571 -334,074,861 -668,149,723 -1,336,299,446 plus: -Inflation cost [construction] ($) -59,823,975 +Inflation cost [construction] ($) -785,198 -3,063,449 -23,585,407 -63,623,186 -160,907,926 equals: -Nominal capital expenditure [construction] ($) -2,660,866,376 +Nominal capital expenditure [construction] ($) -34,924,235 -68,903,021 -357,660,268 -731,772,909 -1,497,207,372 -Issuance of equity [construction] ($) 1,064,346,550 -Issuance of debt [construction] ($) 1,596,519,826 -Debt balance [construction] ($) 1,596,519,826 -Debt interest payment [construction] ($) 0 +Issuance of equity [construction] ($) 13,969,694 27,561,208 143,064,107 292,709,164 598,882,949 +Issuance of debt [construction] ($) 20,954,541 41,341,812 214,596,161 439,063,745 898,324,423 +Debt balance [construction] ($) 20,954,541 64,391,807 285,427,149 753,033,609 1,726,661,393 +Debt interest payment [construction] ($) 0 2,095,454 6,439,181 28,542,715 75,303,361 -Installed cost [construction] ($) -2,660,866,376 -After-tax net cash flow [construction] ($) -1,064,346,550 +Installed cost [construction] ($) -34,924,235 -70,998,475 -364,099,449 -760,315,624 -1,572,510,733 +After-tax net cash flow [construction] ($) -13,969,694 -27,561,208 -143,064,107 -292,709,164 -598,882,949 ENERGY -Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 -Electricity from grid (kWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -Electricity to grid net (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 +Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,178,664,123 4,199,662,810 4,206,059,884 4,209,843,014 4,212,493,870 4,214,477,278 4,216,286,269 4,216,916,955 4,219,017,462 4,205,269,084 4,116,044,105 4,151,575,249 4,198,310,135 4,205,634,090 4,209,856,694 4,212,780,961 4,214,948,327 4,216,799,730 4,217,641,228 4,219,567,450 4,211,262,536 4,142,400,905 4,126,253,056 4,197,035,633 4,205,233,146 4,209,598,843 4,212,527,657 4,214,705,808 4,216,499,878 4,217,606,983 +Electricity from grid (kWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 +Electricity to grid net (kWh) 0.0 4,178,664,123 4,199,662,810 4,206,059,884 4,209,843,014 4,212,493,870 4,214,477,278 4,216,286,269 4,216,916,955 4,219,017,462 4,205,269,084 4,116,044,105 4,151,575,249 4,198,310,135 4,205,634,090 4,209,856,694 4,212,780,961 4,214,948,327 4,216,799,730 4,217,641,228 4,219,567,450 4,211,262,536 4,142,400,905 4,126,253,056 4,197,035,633 4,205,233,146 4,209,598,843 4,212,527,657 4,214,705,808 4,216,499,878 4,217,606,983 REVENUE -PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 9.50 9.50 9.56 9.61 9.67 9.73 9.79 9.84 9.90 9.96 10.01 10.07 10.13 10.18 10.24 10.30 10.36 10.41 10.47 10.53 10.58 10.64 10.70 10.75 10.81 10.87 10.93 10.98 11.04 11.10 -PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 -Curtailment payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Capacity payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,330,433,188 -Total revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 1,800,309,896 +PPA price (cents/kWh) 0.0 9.50 9.50 9.56 9.61 9.67 9.73 9.79 9.84 9.90 9.96 10.01 10.07 10.13 10.18 10.24 10.30 10.36 10.41 10.47 10.53 10.58 10.64 10.70 10.75 10.81 10.87 10.93 10.98 11.04 11.10 +PPA revenue ($) 0 396,973,092 398,967,967 401,973,143 404,734,307 407,390,282 409,984,350 412,563,611 415,028,967 417,640,539 418,676,590 412,139,496 418,063,628 425,162,867 428,301,776 431,131,424 433,832,183 436,457,899 439,053,188 441,544,860 444,151,670 445,677,914 440,751,456 441,385,289 451,349,212 454,627,755 457,499,202 460,218,647 462,858,992 465,459,422 467,985,671 +Curtailment payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Capacity payment revenue ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Salvage value ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,401,424,258 +Total revenue ($) 0 396,973,092 398,967,967 401,973,143 404,734,307 407,390,282 409,984,350 412,563,611 415,028,967 417,640,539 418,676,590 412,139,496 418,063,628 425,162,867 428,301,776 431,131,424 433,832,183 436,457,899 439,053,188 441,544,860 444,151,670 445,677,914 440,751,456 441,385,289 451,349,212 454,627,755 457,499,202 460,218,647 462,858,992 465,459,422 1,869,409,928 -Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 2,660,866,376 +Property tax net assessed value ($) 0 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 2,802,848,515 OPERATING EXPENSES -O&M fixed expense ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 -O&M production-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -O&M capacity-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Fuel expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Electricity purchase ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Property tax expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Insurance expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Total operating expenses ($) 0 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 157,544,343 +O&M fixed expense ($) 0 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 +O&M production-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +O&M capacity-based expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Fuel expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Electricity purchase ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Property tax expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Insurance expense ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total operating expenses ($) 0 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 115,794,554 -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +EBITDA ($) 0 281,178,537 283,173,413 286,178,589 288,939,753 291,595,728 294,189,795 296,769,057 299,234,413 301,845,984 302,882,036 296,344,942 302,269,073 309,368,313 312,507,222 315,336,870 318,037,629 320,663,345 323,258,634 325,750,306 328,357,116 329,883,360 324,956,902 325,590,735 335,554,658 338,833,201 341,704,648 344,424,092 347,064,438 349,664,867 1,753,615,374 OPERATING ACTIVITIES -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 -Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +EBITDA ($) 0 281,178,537 283,173,413 286,178,589 288,939,753 291,595,728 294,189,795 296,769,057 299,234,413 301,845,984 302,882,036 296,344,942 302,269,073 309,368,313 312,507,222 315,336,870 318,037,629 320,663,345 323,258,634 325,750,306 328,357,116 329,883,360 324,956,902 325,590,735 335,554,658 338,833,201 341,704,648 344,424,092 347,064,438 349,664,867 1,753,615,374 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 plus PBI if not available for debt service: -Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 +Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 138,132,911 136,913,552 135,596,645 134,174,384 132,638,343 130,979,418 129,187,780 127,252,810 125,163,043 122,906,095 120,468,590 117,836,085 114,992,980 111,922,427 108,606,229 105,024,735 101,156,722 96,979,268 92,467,617 87,595,034 82,332,645 76,649,265 70,511,214 63,882,119 56,722,696 48,990,520 40,639,770 31,620,959 21,880,644 11,361,104 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 143,045,626 146,259,860 150,581,944 154,765,369 158,957,385 163,210,377 167,581,277 171,981,602 176,682,941 179,975,941 175,876,352 184,432,988 194,375,333 200,584,795 206,730,641 213,012,894 219,506,623 226,279,366 233,282,689 240,762,081 247,550,715 248,307,637 255,079,521 271,672,539 282,110,505 292,714,128 303,784,323 315,443,478 327,784,223 1,742,254,271 INVESTING ACTIVITIES -Total installed cost ($) -2,660,866,376 -Debt closing costs ($) 0 -Debt up-front fee ($) 0 +Total installed cost ($) -2,802,848,515 +Debt closing costs ($) 0 +Debt up-front fee ($) 0 minus: -Total IBI income ($) 0 -Total CBI income ($) 0 +Total IBI income ($) 0 +Total CBI income ($) 0 equals: -Purchase of property ($) -2,660,866,376 +Purchase of property ($) -2,802,848,515 plus: -Reserve (increase)/decrease debt service ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve (increase)/decrease working capital ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve (increase)/decrease receivables ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve capital spending major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve capital spending major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserve capital spending major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease debt service ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease working capital ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease receivables ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve (increase)/decrease major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 1 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 2 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserve capital spending major equipment 3 ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,802,848,515 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FINANCING ACTIVITIES -Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 -Size of debt ($) 1,596,519,826 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,076,187,122 +Size of debt ($) 1,726,661,393 minus: -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 15,241,988 16,461,348 17,778,255 19,200,516 20,736,557 22,395,482 24,187,120 26,122,090 28,211,857 30,468,805 32,906,310 35,538,815 38,381,920 41,452,473 44,768,671 48,350,165 52,218,178 56,395,632 60,907,283 65,779,866 71,042,255 76,725,635 82,863,686 89,492,781 96,652,203 104,384,380 112,735,130 121,753,941 131,494,256 142,013,796 equals: -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,802,848,515 -15,241,988 -16,461,348 -17,778,255 -19,200,516 -20,736,557 -22,395,482 -24,187,120 -26,122,090 -28,211,857 -30,468,805 -32,906,310 -35,538,815 -38,381,920 -41,452,473 -44,768,671 -48,350,165 -52,218,178 -56,395,632 -60,907,283 -65,779,866 -71,042,255 -76,725,635 -82,863,686 -89,492,781 -96,652,203 -104,384,380 -112,735,130 -121,753,941 -131,494,256 -142,013,796 PROJECT RETURNS Pre-tax Cash Flow: -Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 151,411,532 155,123,040 159,568,146 163,761,606 167,722,531 170,897,291 171,841,338 168,078,398 170,915,862 186,161,722 191,742,352 196,838,284 201,785,121 206,335,570 209,483,932 209,165,277 203,182,215 222,834,531 231,029,478 237,507,383 243,810,708 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 -Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,660,866,376 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,660,866,376 -21,660,102 -22,873,068 -24,153,960 -25,506,582 -26,934,950 -28,443,308 -30,036,133 -31,718,156 -33,494,373 -35,370,058 -37,350,781 -39,442,425 -41,651,201 -43,983,668 -46,446,753 -49,047,771 -51,794,447 -54,694,936 -57,757,852 -60,992,292 -64,407,860 -68,014,700 -71,823,524 -75,845,641 -80,092,997 -84,578,205 -89,314,584 -94,316,201 -99,597,908 -105,175,391 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Cash flow from operating activities ($) 0 143,045,626 146,259,860 150,581,944 154,765,369 158,957,385 163,210,377 167,581,277 171,981,602 176,682,941 179,975,941 175,876,352 184,432,988 194,375,333 200,584,795 206,730,641 213,012,894 219,506,623 226,279,366 233,282,689 240,762,081 247,550,715 248,307,637 255,079,521 271,672,539 282,110,505 292,714,128 303,784,323 315,443,478 327,784,223 1,742,254,271 +Cash flow from investing activities ($) -2,802,848,515 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Cash flow from financing activities ($) 2,802,848,515 -15,241,988 -16,461,348 -17,778,255 -19,200,516 -20,736,557 -22,395,482 -24,187,120 -26,122,090 -28,211,857 -30,468,805 -32,906,310 -35,538,815 -38,381,920 -41,452,473 -44,768,671 -48,350,165 -52,218,178 -56,395,632 -60,907,283 -65,779,866 -71,042,255 -76,725,635 -82,863,686 -89,492,781 -96,652,203 -104,384,380 -112,735,130 -121,753,941 -131,494,256 -142,013,796 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 127,803,638 129,798,513 132,803,689 135,564,853 138,220,828 140,814,896 143,394,157 145,859,513 148,471,084 149,507,136 142,970,042 148,894,173 155,993,413 159,132,322 161,961,970 164,662,729 167,288,445 169,883,734 172,375,406 174,982,216 176,508,460 171,582,002 172,215,835 182,179,758 185,458,301 188,329,748 191,049,192 193,689,538 196,289,967 1,600,240,474 Pre-tax Returns: -Issuance of equity ($) 1,064,346,550 -Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 +Issuance of equity ($) 1,076,187,122 +Total pre-tax cash flow ($) 0 127,803,638 129,798,513 132,803,689 135,564,853 138,220,828 140,814,896 143,394,157 145,859,513 148,471,084 149,507,136 142,970,042 148,894,173 155,993,413 159,132,322 161,961,970 164,662,729 167,288,445 169,883,734 172,375,406 174,982,216 176,508,460 171,582,002 172,215,835 182,179,758 185,458,301 188,329,748 191,049,192 193,689,538 196,289,967 1,600,240,474 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,076,187,122 127,803,638 129,798,513 132,803,689 135,564,853 138,220,828 140,814,896 143,394,157 145,859,513 148,471,084 149,507,136 142,970,042 148,894,173 155,993,413 159,132,322 161,961,970 164,662,729 167,288,445 169,883,734 172,375,406 174,982,216 176,508,460 171,582,002 172,215,835 182,179,758 185,458,301 188,329,748 191,049,192 193,689,538 196,289,967 1,600,240,474 After-tax Returns: -Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 129,751,430 132,249,972 135,414,186 138,255,024 140,787,581 142,453,983 141,805,205 136,360,242 137,421,489 150,791,664 154,391,571 157,395,859 160,133,921 162,351,902 163,037,179 160,117,506 151,387,768 168,139,595 173,271,626 176,515,091 179,402,848 181,950,624 183,545,006 182,594,532 176,377,284 177,311,153 191,751,898 195,461,036 198,513,367 1,531,700,341 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 -State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 -Total after-tax returns ($) -1,064,346,550 902,842,830 121,097,763 123,082,690 124,811,004 126,292,727 127,116,866 126,217,632 121,770,976 122,079,444 131,404,893 133,524,258 135,176,596 136,602,262 137,613,009 137,463,025 134,627,892 127,485,460 139,023,528 141,981,439 143,506,316 129,720,834 115,634,823 115,795,735 114,030,354 108,335,718 107,831,906 117,184,960 118,583,135 119,424,446 1,097,437,209 - -After-tax net cash flow ($) -1,064,346,550 902,842,830 121,097,763 123,082,690 124,811,004 126,292,727 127,116,866 126,217,632 121,770,976 122,079,444 131,404,893 133,524,258 135,176,596 136,602,262 137,613,009 137,463,025 134,627,892 127,485,460 139,023,528 141,981,439 143,506,316 129,720,834 115,634,823 115,795,735 114,030,354 108,335,718 107,831,906 117,184,960 118,583,135 119,424,446 1,097,437,209 -After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN -15.17 -3.40 5.89 12.37 16.79 19.80 21.87 23.28 24.29 25.09 25.68 26.13 26.46 26.72 26.91 27.06 27.16 27.25 27.32 27.37 27.41 27.44 27.46 27.47 27.49 27.49 27.50 27.51 27.51 27.55 -After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -1,064,346,550 -276,360,558 -184,114,290 -102,283,638 -29,860,348 34,099,889 90,287,587 138,980,351 179,981,359 215,856,998 249,560,495 279,450,773 305,861,334 329,155,135 349,636,000 367,491,872 382,754,754 395,369,209 407,375,324 418,077,007 427,517,570 434,965,626 440,760,290 445,824,812 450,177,652 453,787,012 456,922,551 459,896,566 462,523,206 464,831,958 483,348,931 +Total pre-tax returns ($) -1,076,187,122 127,803,638 129,798,513 132,803,689 135,564,853 138,220,828 140,814,896 143,394,157 145,859,513 148,471,084 149,507,136 142,970,042 148,894,173 155,993,413 159,132,322 161,961,970 164,662,729 167,288,445 169,883,734 172,375,406 174,982,216 176,508,460 171,582,002 172,215,835 182,179,758 185,458,301 188,329,748 191,049,192 193,689,538 196,289,967 1,600,240,474 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 840,854,555 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -16,304,639 -5,300,207 -6,144,310 -6,961,333 -7,780,034 -8,610,643 -9,464,280 -10,323,664 -11,241,835 -11,884,958 -11,084,308 -12,755,419 -14,697,159 -15,909,867 -17,110,151 -18,337,075 -19,605,300 -20,928,017 -22,295,766 -23,756,491 -36,714,483 -48,494,482 -49,817,031 -53,057,647 -55,096,182 -57,167,069 -59,329,078 -61,606,111 -64,016,259 -340,262,259 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -5,843,957 -1,899,716 -2,202,262 -2,495,101 -2,788,543 -3,086,252 -3,392,215 -3,700,238 -4,029,332 -4,259,842 -3,972,870 -4,571,835 -5,267,799 -5,702,461 -6,132,671 -6,572,428 -7,026,989 -7,501,081 -7,991,314 -8,514,871 -13,159,313 -17,381,535 -17,855,566 -19,017,078 -19,747,735 -20,489,989 -21,264,903 -22,081,043 -22,944,896 -121,957,799 +Total after-tax returns ($) -1,076,187,122 946,509,596 122,598,590 124,457,117 126,108,419 127,652,252 129,118,000 130,537,662 131,835,611 133,199,918 133,362,336 127,912,864 131,566,919 136,028,455 137,519,993 138,719,149 139,753,226 140,656,156 141,454,636 142,088,326 142,710,853 126,634,664 105,705,986 104,543,238 110,105,033 110,614,384 110,672,690 110,455,212 110,002,383 109,328,813 1,138,020,416 + +After-tax net cash flow ($) -13,969,694 -27,561,208 -143,064,107 -292,709,164 -598,882,949 946,509,596 122,598,590 124,457,117 126,108,419 127,652,252 129,118,000 130,537,662 131,835,611 133,199,918 133,362,336 127,912,864 131,566,919 136,028,455 137,519,993 138,719,149 139,753,226 140,656,156 141,454,636 142,088,326 142,710,853 126,634,664 105,705,986 104,543,238 110,105,033 110,614,384 110,672,690 110,455,212 110,002,383 109,328,813 1,138,020,416 +After-tax cumulative IRR (%) NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN -7.55 -0.37 5.34 9.58 12.67 14.92 16.59 17.83 18.77 19.48 20.01 20.42 20.76 21.03 21.24 21.41 21.54 21.65 21.74 21.81 21.86 21.90 21.92 21.95 21.97 21.98 22.00 22.01 22.01 22.09 +After-tax cumulative NPV ($) -13,969,694 -38,024,651 -147,003,791 -341,609,399 -689,119,412 -209,764,988 -155,574,441 -107,560,855 -65,099,404 -27,586,078 5,530,864 34,752,573 60,510,378 83,224,002 103,072,242 119,687,587 134,603,444 148,063,213 159,939,482 170,395,274 179,588,940 187,664,859 194,753,399 200,967,872 206,415,522 210,634,538 213,708,260 216,361,443 218,800,291 220,938,724 222,806,096 224,432,703 225,846,559 227,072,993 238,215,059 AFTER-TAX LCOE AND PPA PRICE -Annual costs ($) -1,064,346,550 504,481,845 -279,761,764 -280,941,051 -282,053,576 -283,104,409 -283,946,673 -284,197,129 -283,198,821 -283,951,600 -287,996,326 -289,476,868 -290,828,818 -292,141,214 -293,348,448 -294,183,709 -294,099,170 -292,511,863 -297,725,623 -299,899,742 -301,618,330 -318,291,569 -334,925,356 -336,358,826 -337,173,733 -336,651,121 -338,088,802 -343,176,493 -345,487,456 -347,698,476 627,560,501 -PPA revenue ($) 0 398,360,985 400,859,527 404,023,741 406,864,580 409,397,136 411,063,538 410,414,761 404,969,797 406,031,044 419,401,219 423,001,126 426,005,415 428,743,476 430,961,457 431,646,734 428,727,061 419,997,324 436,749,150 441,881,181 445,124,646 448,012,403 450,560,179 452,154,561 451,204,088 444,986,839 445,920,708 460,361,453 464,070,591 467,122,922 469,876,708 -Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,193,273,525 4,219,573,970 4,227,516,388 4,232,001,035 4,233,245,126 4,225,570,913 4,194,325,606 4,114,710,394 4,101,737,992 4,212,547,398 4,224,519,385 4,230,441,060 4,233,667,186 4,231,750,368 4,214,888,525 4,163,207,043 4,055,985,743 4,194,671,056 4,220,853,770 4,228,811,003 4,233,321,393 4,234,588,146 4,226,928,684 4,195,686,141 4,116,056,232 4,103,061,353 4,213,834,812 4,225,738,401 4,231,569,184 4,234,649,495 +Annual costs ($) -1,076,187,122 549,536,505 -276,369,377 -277,516,026 -278,625,889 -279,738,031 -280,866,349 -282,025,949 -283,193,355 -284,440,621 -285,314,254 -284,226,633 -286,496,708 -289,134,412 -290,781,783 -292,412,276 -294,078,957 -295,801,744 -297,598,552 -299,456,534 -301,440,817 -319,043,250 -335,045,470 -336,842,051 -341,244,179 -344,013,371 -346,826,512 -349,763,435 -352,856,609 -356,130,609 670,034,746 +PPA revenue ($) 0 396,973,092 398,967,967 401,973,143 404,734,307 407,390,282 409,984,350 412,563,611 415,028,967 417,640,539 418,676,590 412,139,496 418,063,628 425,162,867 428,301,776 431,131,424 433,832,183 436,457,899 439,053,188 441,544,860 444,151,670 445,677,914 440,751,456 441,385,289 451,349,212 454,627,755 457,499,202 460,218,647 462,858,992 465,459,422 467,985,671 +Electricity to grid (kWh) 0.0 4,178,664,123 4,199,662,810 4,206,059,884 4,209,843,014 4,212,493,870 4,214,477,278 4,216,286,269 4,216,916,955 4,219,017,462 4,205,269,084 4,116,044,105 4,151,575,249 4,198,310,135 4,205,634,090 4,209,856,694 4,212,780,961 4,214,948,327 4,216,799,730 4,217,641,228 4,219,567,450 4,211,262,536 4,142,400,905 4,126,253,056 4,197,035,633 4,205,233,146 4,209,598,843 4,212,527,657 4,214,705,808 4,216,499,878 4,217,606,983 -Present value of annual costs ($) 2,298,728,919 -Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 -LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 8.11 +Present value of annual costs ($) 2,257,568,689 +Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,327,518,885 +LCOE Levelized cost of energy nominal (cents/kWh) 7.97 -Present value of PPA revenue ($) 2,782,077,849 -Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,355,365,264 -LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 9.81 +Present value of PPA revenue ($) 2,779,507,611 +Present value of annual energy nominal (kWh) 28,327,518,885 +LPPA Levelized PPA price nominal (cents/kWh) 9.81 PROJECT STATE INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 -State taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State taxable IBI income ($) 0 -State taxable CBI income ($) 0 +EBITDA ($) 0 281,178,537 283,173,413 286,178,589 288,939,753 291,595,728 294,189,795 296,769,057 299,234,413 301,845,984 302,882,036 296,344,942 302,269,073 309,368,313 312,507,222 315,336,870 318,037,629 320,663,345 323,258,634 325,750,306 328,357,116 329,883,360 324,956,902 325,590,735 335,554,658 338,833,201 341,704,648 344,424,092 347,064,438 349,664,867 1,753,615,374 +State taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State taxable IBI income ($) 0 +State taxable CBI income ($) 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 138,132,911 136,913,552 135,596,645 134,174,384 132,638,343 130,979,418 129,187,780 127,252,810 125,163,043 122,906,095 120,468,590 117,836,085 114,992,980 111,922,427 108,606,229 105,024,735 101,156,722 96,979,268 92,467,617 87,595,034 82,332,645 76,649,265 70,511,214 63,882,119 56,722,696 48,990,520 40,639,770 31,620,959 21,880,644 11,361,104 +Total state tax depreciation ($) 0 59,560,531 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 59,560,531 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -State taxable income ($) 0 94,868,122 42,036,219 46,481,325 50,674,785 54,635,710 57,810,470 58,754,517 54,991,577 57,829,041 73,074,901 78,655,531 83,751,463 88,698,300 93,248,749 96,397,111 96,078,457 90,095,394 109,747,710 117,942,657 124,420,562 187,267,297 249,965,324 255,368,530 258,440,173 256,470,281 261,889,357 281,066,482 289,777,237 298,111,275 1,636,875,732 +State taxable income ($) 0 83,485,095 27,138,798 31,460,882 35,644,307 39,836,323 44,089,315 48,460,215 52,860,540 57,561,879 60,854,879 56,755,290 65,311,926 75,254,271 81,463,733 87,609,579 93,891,832 100,385,561 107,158,304 114,161,627 121,641,019 187,990,184 248,307,637 255,079,521 271,672,539 282,110,505 292,714,128 303,784,323 315,443,478 327,784,223 1,742,254,271 -State income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 +State income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -5,843,957 -1,899,716 -2,202,262 -2,495,101 -2,788,543 -3,086,252 -3,392,215 -3,700,238 -4,029,332 -4,259,842 -3,972,870 -4,571,835 -5,267,799 -5,702,461 -6,132,671 -6,572,428 -7,026,989 -7,501,081 -7,991,314 -8,514,871 -13,159,313 -17,381,535 -17,855,566 -19,017,078 -19,747,735 -20,489,989 -21,264,903 -22,081,043 -22,944,896 -121,957,799 PROJECT FEDERAL INCOME TAXES -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 -Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -6,640,769 -2,942,535 -3,253,693 -3,547,235 -3,824,500 -4,046,733 -4,112,816 -3,849,410 -4,048,033 -5,115,243 -5,505,887 -5,862,602 -6,208,881 -6,527,412 -6,747,798 -6,725,492 -6,306,678 -7,682,340 -8,255,986 -8,709,439 -13,108,711 -17,497,573 -17,875,797 -18,090,812 -17,952,920 -18,332,255 -19,674,654 -20,284,407 -20,867,789 -114,581,301 -State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal taxable IBI income ($) 0 -Federal taxable CBI income ($) 0 -Federal taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +EBITDA ($) 0 281,178,537 283,173,413 286,178,589 288,939,753 291,595,728 294,189,795 296,769,057 299,234,413 301,845,984 302,882,036 296,344,942 302,269,073 309,368,313 312,507,222 315,336,870 318,037,629 320,663,345 323,258,634 325,750,306 328,357,116 329,883,360 324,956,902 325,590,735 335,554,658 338,833,201 341,704,648 344,424,092 347,064,438 349,664,867 1,753,615,374 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -5,843,957 -1,899,716 -2,202,262 -2,495,101 -2,788,543 -3,086,252 -3,392,215 -3,700,238 -4,029,332 -4,259,842 -3,972,870 -4,571,835 -5,267,799 -5,702,461 -6,132,671 -6,572,428 -7,026,989 -7,501,081 -7,991,314 -8,514,871 -13,159,313 -17,381,535 -17,855,566 -19,017,078 -19,747,735 -20,489,989 -21,264,903 -22,081,043 -22,944,896 -121,957,799 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal taxable IBI income ($) 0 +Federal taxable CBI income ($) 0 +Federal taxable PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 minus: -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 56,543,410 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 113,086,821 56,543,410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 138,132,911 136,913,552 135,596,645 134,174,384 132,638,343 130,979,418 129,187,780 127,252,810 125,163,043 122,906,095 120,468,590 117,836,085 114,992,980 111,922,427 108,606,229 105,024,735 101,156,722 96,979,268 92,467,617 87,595,034 82,332,645 76,649,265 70,511,214 63,882,119 56,722,696 48,990,520 40,639,770 31,620,959 21,880,644 11,361,104 +Total federal tax depreciation ($) 0 59,560,531 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 119,121,062 59,560,531 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Federal taxable income ($) 0 88,227,353 39,093,684 43,227,632 47,127,550 50,811,211 53,763,737 54,641,701 51,142,167 53,781,008 67,959,658 73,149,644 77,888,861 82,489,419 86,721,337 89,649,313 89,352,965 83,788,717 102,065,370 109,686,671 115,711,122 174,158,587 232,467,751 237,492,733 240,349,361 238,517,361 243,557,102 261,391,828 269,492,830 277,243,486 1,522,294,430 +Federal taxable income ($) 0 77,641,138 25,239,083 29,258,621 33,149,206 37,047,781 41,003,063 45,068,000 49,160,303 53,532,548 56,595,038 52,782,420 60,740,091 69,986,472 75,761,272 81,476,909 87,319,404 93,358,572 99,657,223 106,170,313 113,126,148 174,830,871 230,926,103 237,223,955 252,655,461 262,362,769 272,224,139 282,519,420 293,362,435 304,839,328 1,620,296,472 -Federal income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 -Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -18,527,744 -8,209,674 -9,077,803 -9,896,786 -10,670,354 -11,290,385 -11,474,757 -10,739,855 -11,294,012 -14,271,528 -15,361,425 -16,356,661 -17,322,778 -18,211,481 -18,826,356 -18,764,123 -17,595,630 -21,433,728 -23,034,201 -24,299,336 -36,573,303 -48,818,228 -49,873,474 -50,473,366 -50,088,646 -51,146,991 -54,892,284 -56,593,494 -58,221,132 -319,681,830 +Federal income tax rate (frac) 0.0 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 +Federal tax benefit (liability) ($) 0 -16,304,639 -5,300,207 -6,144,310 -6,961,333 -7,780,034 -8,610,643 -9,464,280 -10,323,664 -11,241,835 -11,884,958 -11,084,308 -12,755,419 -14,697,159 -15,909,867 -17,110,151 -18,337,075 -19,605,300 -20,928,017 -22,295,766 -23,756,491 -36,714,483 -48,494,482 -49,817,031 -53,057,647 -55,096,182 -57,167,069 -59,329,078 -61,606,111 -64,016,259 -340,262,259 CASH INCENTIVES -Federal IBI income ($) 0 -State IBI income ($) 0 -Utility IBI income ($) 0 -Other IBI income ($) 0 -Total IBI income ($) 0 - -Federal CBI income ($) 0 -State CBI income ($) 0 -Utility CBI income ($) 0 -Other CBI income ($) 0 -Total CBI income ($) 0 - -Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Total PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal IBI income ($) 0 +State IBI income ($) 0 +Utility IBI income ($) 0 +Other IBI income ($) 0 +Total IBI income ($) 0 + +Federal CBI income ($) 0 +State CBI income ($) 0 +Utility CBI income ($) 0 +Other CBI income ($) 0 +Total CBI income ($) 0 + +Federal PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Utility PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Other PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Total PBI income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TAX CREDITS -Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State PTC income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Federal ITC total income ($) 0 798,259,913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC percent income ($) 0 840,854,555 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Federal ITC total income ($) 0 840,854,555 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State ITC percent income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State ITC amount income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State ITC percent income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +State ITC total income ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEBT REPAYMENT -Debt balance ($) 1,596,519,826 1,574,859,723 1,551,986,655 1,527,832,695 1,502,326,113 1,475,391,163 1,446,947,855 1,416,911,722 1,385,193,566 1,351,699,193 1,316,329,135 1,278,978,354 1,239,535,929 1,197,884,729 1,153,901,061 1,107,454,308 1,058,406,536 1,006,612,089 951,917,154 894,159,302 833,167,010 768,759,150 700,744,449 628,920,926 553,075,285 472,982,288 388,404,084 299,089,500 204,773,299 105,175,391 0 -Debt interest payment ($) 0 89,405,110 88,192,144 86,911,253 85,558,631 84,130,262 82,621,905 81,029,080 79,347,056 77,570,840 75,695,155 73,714,432 71,622,788 69,414,012 67,081,545 64,618,459 62,017,441 59,270,766 56,370,277 53,307,361 50,072,921 46,657,353 43,050,512 39,241,689 35,219,572 30,972,216 26,487,008 21,750,629 16,749,012 11,467,305 5,889,822 -Debt principal payment ($) 0 21,660,102 22,873,068 24,153,960 25,506,582 26,934,950 28,443,308 30,036,133 31,718,156 33,494,373 35,370,058 37,350,781 39,442,425 41,651,201 43,983,668 46,446,753 49,047,771 51,794,447 54,694,936 57,757,852 60,992,292 64,407,860 68,014,700 71,823,524 75,845,641 80,092,997 84,578,205 89,314,584 94,316,201 99,597,908 105,175,391 -Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 +Debt balance ($) 1,726,661,393 1,711,419,405 1,694,958,058 1,677,179,802 1,657,979,286 1,637,242,729 1,614,847,248 1,590,660,128 1,564,538,038 1,536,326,181 1,505,857,376 1,472,951,066 1,437,412,251 1,399,030,332 1,357,577,858 1,312,809,187 1,264,459,022 1,212,240,844 1,155,845,212 1,094,937,929 1,029,158,063 958,115,808 881,390,173 798,526,487 709,033,706 612,381,502 507,997,123 395,261,992 273,508,052 142,013,796 0 +Debt interest payment ($) 0 138,132,911 136,913,552 135,596,645 134,174,384 132,638,343 130,979,418 129,187,780 127,252,810 125,163,043 122,906,095 120,468,590 117,836,085 114,992,980 111,922,427 108,606,229 105,024,735 101,156,722 96,979,268 92,467,617 87,595,034 82,332,645 76,649,265 70,511,214 63,882,119 56,722,696 48,990,520 40,639,770 31,620,959 21,880,644 11,361,104 +Debt principal payment ($) 0 15,241,988 16,461,348 17,778,255 19,200,516 20,736,557 22,395,482 24,187,120 26,122,090 28,211,857 30,468,805 32,906,310 35,538,815 38,381,920 41,452,473 44,768,671 48,350,165 52,218,178 56,395,632 60,907,283 65,779,866 71,042,255 76,725,635 82,863,686 89,492,781 96,652,203 104,384,380 112,735,130 121,753,941 131,494,256 142,013,796 +Debt total payment ($) 0 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 DSCR (DEBT FRACTION) -EBITDA ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 +EBITDA ($) 0 281,178,537 283,173,413 286,178,589 288,939,753 291,595,728 294,189,795 296,769,057 299,234,413 301,845,984 302,882,036 296,344,942 302,269,073 309,368,313 312,507,222 315,336,870 318,037,629 320,663,345 323,258,634 325,750,306 328,357,116 329,883,360 324,956,902 325,590,735 335,554,658 338,833,201 341,704,648 344,424,092 347,064,438 349,664,867 1,753,615,374 minus: -Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 equals: -Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 240,816,642 243,315,185 246,479,399 249,320,237 251,852,794 253,519,196 252,870,418 247,425,454 248,486,701 261,856,876 265,456,784 268,461,072 271,199,133 273,417,115 274,102,391 271,182,719 262,452,981 279,204,808 284,336,839 287,580,304 290,468,060 293,015,836 294,610,219 293,659,745 287,442,497 288,376,365 302,817,111 306,526,249 309,578,580 1,642,765,554 -Debt total payment ($) 0 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 111,065,213 -DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 2.17 2.19 2.22 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.28 2.23 2.24 2.36 2.39 2.42 2.44 2.46 2.47 2.44 2.36 2.51 2.56 2.59 2.62 2.64 2.65 2.64 2.59 2.60 2.73 2.76 2.79 14.79 +Cash available for debt service (CAFDS) ($) 0 281,178,537 283,173,413 286,178,589 288,939,753 291,595,728 294,189,795 296,769,057 299,234,413 301,845,984 302,882,036 296,344,942 302,269,073 309,368,313 312,507,222 315,336,870 318,037,629 320,663,345 323,258,634 325,750,306 328,357,116 329,883,360 324,956,902 325,590,735 335,554,658 338,833,201 341,704,648 344,424,092 347,064,438 349,664,867 1,753,615,374 +Debt total payment ($) 0 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 153,374,900 +DSCR (pre-tax) 0.0 1.83 1.85 1.87 1.88 1.90 1.92 1.93 1.95 1.97 1.97 1.93 1.97 2.02 2.04 2.06 2.07 2.09 2.11 2.12 2.14 2.15 2.12 2.12 2.19 2.21 2.23 2.25 2.26 2.28 11.43 RESERVES -Reserves working capital funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves working capital disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves working capital balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves debt service funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves debt service disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves debt service balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves receivables disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves receivables balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 1 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 1 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 2 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 2 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 3 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Reserves major equipment 3 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Reserves total reserves balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -Interest on reserves (%/year) 1.75 -Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- +Reserves working capital funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves working capital disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves working capital balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves debt service funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves debt service disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves debt service balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves receivables funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves receivables balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 1 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 1 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 1 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 2 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 2 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves major equipment 3 funding ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 disbursement ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Reserves major equipment 3 balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + +Reserves total reserves balance ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +Interest on reserves (%/year) 1.75 +Interest earned on reserves ($) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- diff --git a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt index d2c1fe95..996f226a 100644 --- a/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt +++ b/tests/examples/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.txt @@ -1,7 +1,4 @@ -# Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station -# 500 MWe EGS Case Study Modeled on Fervo Cape Station after Fervo's April 2025 upsizing announcement: -# https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-announces-31-mw-power-purchase-agreement-with-shell-energy/ -# See documentation: https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.html +# Case Study: 500 MWe EGS Project Modeled on Fervo Cape Station: Multiple Construction Years # *** ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL PARAMETERS *** # ************************************* @@ -14,10 +11,12 @@ Electricity Escalation Start Year, 1 Discount Rate, 0.12 Fraction of Investment in Bonds, .6, -- Based on fraction of CAPEX with $1 billion in sponsor equity per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ -Inflated Bond Interest Rate, .056 +Inflated Bond Interest Rate, .08 +Inflated Bond Interest Rate During Construction, 0.1 Inflation Rate, .023, -- US inflation as of April 2025 -Construction Years, 1, -- Calibrated to a 2-6 year construction time for a 1 GW plant (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) +Construction Years, 5, 2023–2028 +Construction CAPEX Schedule, 0.014,0.027,0.137,0.274,0.548 Combined Income Tax Rate, .28 Investment Tax Credit Rate, 0.3 @@ -27,11 +26,10 @@ Capital Cost for Power Plant for Electricity Generation, 1900, -- https://better Exploration Capital Cost, 30, -- Estimate significantly higher exploration costs than default correlation in consideration of potential risks associated with second/third/fourth-of-a-kind EGS projects Well Drilling Cost Correlation, 3, -- VERTICAL_LARGE (2025 NREL Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update) -Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.8, -- Adjust correlation-calculated value of $4.72M/well to $3.96M/well per Tim Latimer on 2025-02-12 Volts podcast: less than $4M/well +Well Drilling and Completion Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.9, -- NREL Geothermal 2024b ATB https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024b/geothermal -Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. -Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 4, -- Baseline stimulation cost of $4.0M, calibrated from high-intensity U.S. shale well analogue (~$39k/frac stage for 102 stages). This is a pre-contingency value and excludes EGS-specific cost premiums such as ceramic proppant and HPHT hardware. -Reservoir Stimulation Indirect Capital Cost Percentage, 0, -- Baseline stimulation cost includes indirect costs +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Injection Well, 4 +Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Production Well, 4 Field Gathering System Capital Cost Adjustment Factor, 0.54, -- Gathering costs represent 2% of facilities CAPEX per https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fervo-energy-technology-day-2024-entering-geothermal-decade-matson-n4stc/ @@ -42,7 +40,7 @@ Power Plant Type, 2, -- Supercritical ORC Plant Lifetime, 30, -- Per https://fervoenergy.com/geothermal-mythbusting-water-use-and-impacts/ Reservoir Model, 1, -- Multiple Parallel Fractures -Reservoir Depth, 8500 feet, -- https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf +Reservoir Depth, 2.5908, -- 8500 feet per https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf Gradient 1, 74, -- temperature at 8500 ft: 200 degC (https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2024/Fercho.pdf); 228.89 degC @ 9824 ft (https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C) Number of Segments, 1 @@ -51,23 +49,28 @@ Reservoir Density, 2800, -- per https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X0B: phyllite + quar Reservoir Heat Capacity, 790 Reservoir Thermal Conductivity, 3.05 Reservoir Porosity, 0.0118 -Reservoir Impedance, 0.001565 + +Productivity Index, 2.494, -- [kg/s/bar] NREL ATB conservative scenario (https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal) +Injectivity Index, 3.015, -- [kg/s/bar] NREL ATB conservative scenario (https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/geothermal) + Reservoir Volume Option, 1, -- FRAC_NUM_SEP: Reservoir volume calculated with fracture separation and number of fractures as input -Number of Fractures, 12036, -- 102 fractures per well -Fracture Separation, 18, -- Per https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7665/, lateral length is 4700 ft = 1432 m. Dividing 1432 by 80 = ~18 m fracture spacing. -Fracture Shape, 3, -- Square -Fracture Height, 165.3, -- Based on total fracture surface area of 30 million ft^2 per well https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/pdf/IGAstandard/SGW/2025/Fercho.pdf -Number of Doublets, 59 - -Production Flow Rate per Well, 107, -- Maximum flow rate achieved at Cape Station per https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240910997008/en/Fervo-Energys-Record-Breaking-Production-Results-Showcase-Rapid-Scale-Up-of-Enhanced-Geothermal -Production Well Diameter, 9.625, -- Next standard size up from 7", implied by announcement of "increasing casing diameter" -Injection Well Diameter, 9.625 +Number of Fractures per Stimulated Well, 200, -- 25 stages with 8 clusters per stage +Fracture Separation, 7.315 +Fracture Shape, 2, -- CIRCULAR_DIAMETER +Fracture Height, 186.16, -- Approximates ellipsoidal fracture with 228 meter height and 152 meter width +Number of Doublets, 50 + +Production Flow Rate per Well, 120, -- Tested flow rate +Production Well Diameter, 8.535, -- Inner diameter for 9-5/8" casing size +Injection Well Diameter, 8.535, -- Inner diameter for 9-5/8" casing size + Ramey Production Wellbore Model, 1 Injection Temperature, 53.6, -- GEOPHIRES model-calculated reinjection temperature Injection Wellbore Temperature Gain, 3 -Ambient Temperature, 10 degC -Surface Temperature, 10 degC + +Ambient Temperature, 10, -- degC +Surface Temperature, 10, -- degC Maximum Drawdown, 0.0153, -- Drawdown value that prevents minimum net electricity generation from going below 500 MWe Water Loss Fraction, 0.15, -- Estimated to be between 10 and 20% @@ -79,7 +82,7 @@ Circulation Pump Efficiency, 0.80 Well Geometry Configuration, 4, -- L Number of Multilateral Sections, 0, -- This parameter is set to 0 because, for this case study, the cost of horizontal drilling (which would otherwise account for approximately 118 multilateral sections) is included within the 'vertical drilling cost.' This approach allows us to more directly convey the overall well drilling and completion cost, which is under $4 million. -Nonvertical Length per Multilateral Section, 4700 feet, -- Deployment of Enhanced Geothermal System Technology Leads to Rapid Cost Reductions and Performance Improvements. p. 3. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5VH8C +Nonvertical Length per Multilateral Section, 4800 feet, -- Fervo presentation at Payne Institute, Dec 2, 2025 Multilaterals Cased, True # *** SIMULATION PARAMETERS *** diff --git a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py index 57d9e888..5fb2fcb6 100644 --- a/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py +++ b/tests/geophires_x_tests/test_fervo_project_cape_4.py @@ -29,26 +29,26 @@ def test_fervo_project_cape_4_results_against_reference_values(self): max_total_gen = r.result['SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS']['Maximum Total Electricity Generation'][ 'value' ] - self.assertGreater(max_total_gen, 600) - self.assertLess(max_total_gen, 650) + self.assertGreater(max_total_gen, 550) + self.assertLess(max_total_gen, 600) lcoe = r.result['SUMMARY OF RESULTS']['Electricity breakeven price']['value'] self.assertGreater(lcoe, 7.5) self.assertLess(lcoe, 8.5) redrills = r.result['ENGINEERING PARAMETERS']['Number of times redrilling']['value'] - self.assertGreater(redrills, 2) - self.assertLess(redrills, 7) + self.assertGreater(redrills, 1) + self.assertLess(redrills, 6) well_cost = r.result['CAPITAL COSTS (M$)']['Drilling and completion costs per well']['value'] - self.assertLess(well_cost, 4.0) - self.assertGreater(well_cost, 3.0) + self.assertLess(well_cost, 5.0) + self.assertGreater(well_cost, 4.0) pumping_power_pct = r.result['SURFACE EQUIPMENT SIMULATION RESULTS'][ 'Initial pumping power/net installed power' ]['value'] - self.assertGreater(pumping_power_pct, 13) - self.assertLess(pumping_power_pct, 17) + self.assertGreater(pumping_power_pct, 5) + self.assertLess(pumping_power_pct, 15) self.assertEqual( r.result['SUMMARY OF RESULTS']['Number of production wells']['value'], @@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ def test_case_study_documentation(self): inputs_in_markdown = self.parse_markdown_inputs_structured(documentation_file_content) results_in_markdown = self.parse_markdown_results_structured(documentation_file_content) - self.assertEqual(3.96, results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Costs']['value']) + self.assertEqual(4.46, results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Costs']['value']) self.assertEqual('MUSD/well', results_in_markdown['Well Drilling and Completion Costs']['unit']) expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well = 4.6 @@ -158,10 +158,14 @@ def __init__(self, vu: dict[str, Any]): inputs_in_markdown['Reservoir Volume']['value'], ) - expected_stim_cost_total_MUSD = expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well * num_doublets * 2 - self.assertEqual( + expected_stim_indirect_cost_frac = 0.05 + expected_stim_cost_total_MUSD = ( + expected_stim_cost_MUSD_per_well * num_doublets * 2 * (1.0 + expected_stim_indirect_cost_frac) + ) + self.assertAlmostEqualWithinSigFigs( expected_stim_cost_total_MUSD, example_result.result['CAPITAL COSTS (M$)']['Stimulation costs']['value'], + num_sig_figs=3, ) def parse_markdown_results_structured(self, markdown_text: str) -> dict: