Revisiting the ecological forecast horizon.

The code that accompanies our work on actual, relative and potential system predictability. We are happy about a citation if you use the code. The four case studies revisit empirical forecast horizons are:

1. Stochastic Ricker equation (s_ricker) (based on May 1976)
2. Coupled extended Ricker equation (c_ricker) (based on May 1976)
3. ML-based land surface emulator (land_emulation) (Wesselkamp et al. 2024)
4. Individual-based forest ecosystem model (iLand) (Seidl et al. 2012)

Data for reproducability

• Experiments 1. and 2. work with simulations which are generated in code.
• Experiment 3 works with a data base that is published with DOI 10.21957/pcf3-ah06.
• Experiment 4 runs with data, available in the iLand/data folder.

References

• Petchey et al. (2015): DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12443
• May (1976). DOI: 10.1038/261459a0
• Seidl et al. (2012). DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.02.015
• Wesselkamp et al. (2024). DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2407.16463