Skip to content
Draft
Show file tree
Hide file tree
Changes from all commits
Commits
File filter

Filter by extension

Filter by extension

Conversations
Failed to load comments.
Loading
Jump to
Jump to file
Failed to load files.
Loading
Diff view
Diff view
24 changes: 12 additions & 12 deletions .gitignore
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
*.csv
*.jld2
*.json
*.pyc
*.log
.DS_Store
.vscode
*.txt
*.ipynb_checkpoints
*.sh
*.ipynb
*.json
*.csv
*.jld2
*.json
*.pyc
*.log
.DS_Store
.vscode
*.txt
*.ipynb_checkpoints
*.sh
*.ipynb
*.json
Manifest.toml
58 changes: 29 additions & 29 deletions LICENSE
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,29 +1,29 @@
BSD 3-Clause License

Copyright (c) 2019, Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC
All rights reserved.

Redistribution and use in source and binary forms, with or without
modification, are permitted provided that the following conditions are met:

* Redistributions of source code must retain the above copyright notice, this
list of conditions and the following disclaimer.

* Redistributions in binary form must reproduce the above copyright notice,
this list of conditions and the following disclaimer in the documentation
and/or other materials provided with the distribution.

* Neither the name of the copyright holder nor the names of its
contributors may be used to endorse or promote products derived from
this software without specific prior written permission.

THIS SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED BY THE COPYRIGHT HOLDERS AND CONTRIBUTORS "AS IS"
AND ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE
DISCLAIMED. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE COPYRIGHT HOLDER OR CONTRIBUTORS BE LIABLE
FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, EXEMPLARY, OR CONSEQUENTIAL
DAMAGES (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, PROCUREMENT OF SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR
SERVICES; LOSS OF USE, DATA, OR PROFITS; OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) HOWEVER
CAUSED AND ON ANY THEORY OF LIABILITY, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, STRICT LIABILITY,
OR TORT (INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) ARISING IN ANY WAY OUT OF THE USE
OF THIS SOFTWARE, EVEN IF ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGE.
BSD 3-Clause License
Copyright (c) 2019, Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC
All rights reserved.
Redistribution and use in source and binary forms, with or without
modification, are permitted provided that the following conditions are met:
* Redistributions of source code must retain the above copyright notice, this
list of conditions and the following disclaimer.
* Redistributions in binary form must reproduce the above copyright notice,
this list of conditions and the following disclaimer in the documentation
and/or other materials provided with the distribution.
* Neither the name of the copyright holder nor the names of its
contributors may be used to endorse or promote products derived from
this software without specific prior written permission.
THIS SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED BY THE COPYRIGHT HOLDERS AND CONTRIBUTORS "AS IS"
AND ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE
DISCLAIMED. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE COPYRIGHT HOLDER OR CONTRIBUTORS BE LIABLE
FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, EXEMPLARY, OR CONSEQUENTIAL
DAMAGES (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, PROCUREMENT OF SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR
SERVICES; LOSS OF USE, DATA, OR PROFITS; OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) HOWEVER
CAUSED AND ON ANY THEORY OF LIABILITY, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, STRICT LIABILITY,
OR TORT (INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) ARISING IN ANY WAY OUT OF THE USE
OF THIS SOFTWARE, EVEN IF ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGE.
5 changes: 5 additions & 0 deletions Project.toml
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ DataFrames = "a93c6f00-e57d-5684-b7b6-d8193f3e46c0"
Dates = "ade2ca70-3891-5945-98fb-dc099432e06a"
Distributed = "8ba89e20-285c-5b6f-9357-94700520ee1b"
Distributions = "31c24e10-a181-5473-b8eb-7969acd0382f"
EMISExtensions = "ea396fd1-c9da-422a-af29-096b7307fcdf"
FileIO = "5789e2e9-d7fb-5bc7-8068-2c6fae9b9549"
InfrastructureSystems = "2cd47ed4-ca9b-11e9-27f2-ab636a7671f1"
InteractiveUtils = "b77e0a4c-d291-57a0-90e8-8db25a27a240"
Expand All @@ -21,11 +22,15 @@ LinearAlgebra = "37e2e46d-f89d-539d-b4ee-838fcccc9c8e"
MathOptInterface = "b8f27783-ece8-5eb3-8dc8-9495eed66fee"
MinCostFlows = "62286e6e-1779-56f1-888a-1c0056788ce0"
PRAS = "05348d26-1c52-11e9-35e3-9d51842d34b9"
PooledArrays = "2dfb63ee-cc39-5dd5-95bd-886bf059d720"
PowerSimulations = "e690365d-45e2-57bb-ac84-44ba829e73c4"
PowerSystems = "bcd98974-b02a-5e2f-9ee0-a103f5c450dd"
Random = "9a3f8284-a2c9-5f02-9a11-845980a1fd5c"
ReliablePowerSimulations = "52e8e31b-eef8-4797-aa92-cb78ffe3b27e"
Revise = "295af30f-e4ad-537b-8983-00126c2a3abe"
Statistics = "10745b16-79ce-11e8-11f9-7d13ad32a3b2"
StatsBase = "2913bbd2-ae8a-5f71-8c99-4fb6c76f3a91"
TimeSeries = "9e3dc215-6440-5c97-bce1-76c03772f85e"
TimeZones = "f269a46b-ccf7-5d73-abea-4c690281aa53"
UUIDs = "cf7118a7-6976-5b1a-9a39-7adc72f591a4"
Xpress = "9e70acf3-d6c9-5be6-b5bd-4e2c73e3e054"
130 changes: 65 additions & 65 deletions README.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,66 +1,66 @@
# EMIS AgentSimulation Model

The Electricity Markets Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS)
model is an agent-based model developed at NREL for simulating annual investment
and retirement decisions of heterogeneous investors in the electricity sector.
EMIS-AS is designed to capture the evolution of the electricity generation portfolio
resulting from the interactions of heterogeneous investors under different policy
and market designs. EMIS-AS not only allows end-users to customize market products
and rules, but also to capture investors' heterogeneous financing parameters,
technology preferences, beliefs about the future (forecasts), ability to update
those forecasts, and risk preferences under uncertainty.

## Model Structure

<img src="EMIS-AS_structure.png" />

EMIS-AS is initialized based on the input data detailing the test system, generation
units, market design, investors' characteristics and simulation parameters. Additionally,
the pre-processing step includes calculation of the weighted average cost of capital
(WACC) and adjusted CAPEX for all existing and option projects for each investor.
Next, the model selects the specified number of representative days (with hourly
resolution) to be used by the investors for price prediction. These representative
days and their corresponding weights are determined based on load and renewable
generation timeseries using k-medoids clustering.

Subsequently, the simulation commences with successive yearly iterations for the specified
simulation horizon. At the start of each simulation year, the investors project future
prices and make revenue predictions. The predicted revenues are then used to calculate the
expected utility (based on the expected net present value (NPV)) for all projects.
Subsequently, the revenue prediction outcomes and expected utility are used to make
investment and retirement decisions and for calculation of market bids.


Once all investors have completed their decision-making process, their investment and
retirement decisions are announced. The model then updates the build-phases of all
projects, which are depicted below.

<img src="project_phases.png" />

The projects in the Option phase which get decided to be invested in are sent to the
interconnection queue and included in the list of active projects. The projects already
in the interconnection queue progress one year further in the queue.
The projects which have completed their queue time then enter the construction phase. It
is assumed that the investors only have to pay the annual queue costs when the projects are
in the queue, but would have to pay the full capital cost once construction commences.
The projects which have completed their construction times are included in the set of existing
projects. Finally, if any project is to be retired, either due to end-of-life or profitability
reasons, is removed from the list of active projects.

The life cycle phase updates are followed by the actual clearing of the modeled electricity
markets. The current version of EMIS-AS includes energy, ancillary services, capacity and
Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) markets. The investors then update the realized revenues
for their projects and also update their beliefs (using Kalman Filters) based on the realized
values of the parameters. Finally, the derating factors of variable renewable generation
are calculated based on the updated installed capacities using the top-n net-load hour methodology.

## Loading Data and Simulation Creation

While the model's input data for investors and markets can be instantiated directly as
Julia structs, the model provides a CSV-based file import functionality that may be
more convenient. Data organized according to the file structure
[described here](input_file_structure.html) will be automatically populated into a
corresponding `AgentSimulation`. The worklow for processing the input data for creating
the `AgentSimulation` is depicted below.

# EMIS AgentSimulation Model
The Electricity Markets Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS)
model is an agent-based model developed at NREL for simulating annual investment
and retirement decisions of heterogeneous investors in the electricity sector.
EMIS-AS is designed to capture the evolution of the electricity generation portfolio
resulting from the interactions of heterogeneous investors under different policy
and market designs. EMIS-AS not only allows end-users to customize market products
and rules, but also to capture investors' heterogeneous financing parameters,
technology preferences, beliefs about the future (forecasts), ability to update
those forecasts, and risk preferences under uncertainty.
## Model Structure
<img src="EMIS-AS_structure.png" />
EMIS-AS is initialized based on the input data detailing the test system, generation
units, market design, investors' characteristics and simulation parameters. Additionally,
the pre-processing step includes calculation of the weighted average cost of capital
(WACC) and adjusted CAPEX for all existing and option projects for each investor.
Next, the model selects the specified number of representative days (with hourly
resolution) to be used by the investors for price prediction. These representative
days and their corresponding weights are determined based on load and renewable
generation timeseries using k-medoids clustering.
Subsequently, the simulation commences with successive yearly iterations for the specified
simulation horizon. At the start of each simulation year, the investors project future
prices and make revenue predictions. The predicted revenues are then used to calculate the
expected utility (based on the expected net present value (NPV)) for all projects.
Subsequently, the revenue prediction outcomes and expected utility are used to make
investment and retirement decisions and for calculation of market bids.
Once all investors have completed their decision-making process, their investment and
retirement decisions are announced. The model then updates the build-phases of all
projects, which are depicted below.
<img src="project_phases.png" />
The projects in the Option phase which get decided to be invested in are sent to the
interconnection queue and included in the list of active projects. The projects already
in the interconnection queue progress one year further in the queue.
The projects which have completed their queue time then enter the construction phase. It
is assumed that the investors only have to pay the annual queue costs when the projects are
in the queue, but would have to pay the full capital cost once construction commences.
The projects which have completed their construction times are included in the set of existing
projects. Finally, if any project is to be retired, either due to end-of-life or profitability
reasons, is removed from the list of active projects.
The life cycle phase updates are followed by the actual clearing of the modeled electricity
markets. The current version of EMIS-AS includes energy, ancillary services, capacity and
Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) markets. The investors then update the realized revenues
for their projects and also update their beliefs (using Kalman Filters) based on the realized
values of the parameters. Finally, the derating factors of variable renewable generation
are calculated based on the updated installed capacities using the top-n net-load hour methodology.
## Loading Data and Simulation Creation
While the model's input data for investors and markets can be instantiated directly as
Julia structs, the model provides a CSV-based file import functionality that may be
more convenient. Data organized according to the file structure
[described here](input_file_structure.html) will be automatically populated into a
corresponding `AgentSimulation`. The worklow for processing the input data for creating
the `AgentSimulation` is depicted below.
<img src="simulation_creation.png" />
Loading