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daily-trader: backtest + rerank + FOM (2026-07-07) - #80

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daily-trader: backtest + rerank + FOM (2026-07-07)#80
SamprasZheng wants to merge 1 commit into
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auto/daily-trader-2026-07-07

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Summary

  • Run status: OFFLINE_STUB — first run; two blockers prevented live data
  • Hit rate: N/A (first run, no prior recommendations to backtest)
  • Top-3 FOM tickers (placeholder): NVDA (0.836), TSM (0.762), AVGO (0.726)
  • Regressions: none — this is the first trader run

What's in this PR

File Description
wiki/synthesis/daily-trader-2026-07-07.md Full structured daily report: watchlist, scan verdicts, tier-1/2 rerank, FOM table, blockers, open questions
wiki/log.md One-line log entry prepended
wiki/index.md [[synthesis/daily-trader-2026-07-07]] added under Synthesis

agents/outputs/scan-2026-07-07.json was written locally but is excluded by agents/.gitignore (outputs/*).

Blockers (need resolution before live data works)

B1 — Yahoo Finance proxy block (CRITICAL)
fc.yahoo.com:443 returns HTTP 403 CONNECT via the environment proxy policy. No live price data, no realized returns, no momentum signals. Fix: add fc.yahoo.com to the proxy allowlist (see /root/.ccr/README.md).

B2 — Trader pipeline not installed (HIGH)
agents/src/trader/ does not exist. The task references cli.py, orchestrator.py, tools/yfinance_client.py, and LLM_BACKEND=anthropic uv run trader scan — none present. Fix: scaffold the trader module mirroring agents/src/firefly/.

FOM Formula (v1.0, documented in report)

FOM = 0.4 × conf_norm + 0.3 × sizing_sigma_norm + 0.2 × recent_hit_rate + 0.1 × news_momentum

Weights are priors; revisit after 5 days of hit-rate data via simple OLS.

Placeholder Directions (tomorrow's backtest reference)

NVDA=LONG, TSM=LONG, AVGO=LONG, PLTR=LONG, MSFT=LONG, META=LONG, AMZN=LONG, ORCL=LONG, TSLA=SHORT, GOOGL/AAPL/CRM/AMD/SMCI/NFLX=NEUTRAL


Generated by Claude Code

OFFLINE_STUB: first run; yfinance blocked by proxy (fc.yahoo.com 403),
trader pipeline (agents/src/trader/) not yet installed.

- wiki/synthesis/daily-trader-2026-07-07.md: full structured report with
  15-ticker watchlist, placeholder scan verdicts, FOM v1.0 table
  (0.4×conf + 0.3×σ + 0.2×hit_rate + 0.1×news_mom), tier-1/2 rerank,
  blocker documentation, and tomorrow's backtest reference directions
- wiki/log.md: one-line entry prepended
- wiki/index.md: daily-trader section added under Synthesis

Scan JSON at agents/outputs/scan-2026-07-07.json is gitignored per
agents/.gitignore (outputs/* pattern).

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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