daily-trader: backtest + rerank + FOM (2026-07-12)

[SamprasZheng]

Summary

• Status: BLOCKED (stub report) — two infrastructure blockers prevented live market data collection; stub committed so the failure is visible and actionable.
• Blocker 1 — Network: Yahoo Finance unreachable. yfinance 1.5.1 installed successfully but every ticker returned CONNECT tunnel failed, response 403. The environment's egress proxy does not allow outbound HTTPS to finance.yahoo.com / query1.finance.yahoo.com.
• Blocker 2 — Pipeline: agents/src/trader/ does not exist. Only the Firefly orbital-data-center pipeline is implemented. The trader scan CLI referenced in the task spec needs to be scaffolded.

What's in this PR

File	Description
wiki/synthesis/daily-trader-2026-07-12.md	Stub daily report: FOM formula defined, 15-ticker seed watchlist, provisional Tier-1/Tier-2 assignments (by structural thesis, no price data), open questions for next run
wiki/log.md	One-line daily-trader entry appended
wiki/index.md	New Trader / Daily Research section added

FOM Formula (for future runs)

FOM = 0.4 × confidence
    + 0.3 × normalized_sizing_sigma
    + 0.2 × recent_hit_rate
    + 0.1 × news_momentum

Each component normalized to [0, 1]. Weights are initial guesses; calibrate via OLS fit after 5+ days of backtest data.

Top-3 Provisional Tier-1 (no data — structural thesis only)

1. NVDA — AI GPU monopoly; pricing power + HBM gating
2. MSFT — Azure OpenAI; enterprise stickiness; capex-revenue lag
3. AVGO — Custom ASIC + networking; structural undervaluation vs NVDA

Hit Rate

N/A — first run, no prior predictions to backtest.

Required fixes before next run

1. Add finance.yahoo.com to the environment's egress allowlist (or swap to an approved provider: Polygon.io, Alpha Vantage, Tiingo).
2. Scaffold agents/src/trader/ with cli.py, tools/yfinance_client.py, and orchestrator.py.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

https://claude.ai/code/session_01TGDm7xJ2Kjjk8AMkZEdpH1

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Generated by Claude Code