Wave 4 Tier A drain: EfficientDiD anticipation note, generate_ddd_panel_data, TROP data-setup helper

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 ## [Unreleased]
 
 ### Added
+- **`generate_ddd_panel_data` — panel-structured DGP for Triple-Difference power analysis** (`diff_diff/prep_dgp.py`). New public function exported from `diff_diff` and `diff_diff.prep` for panel DDD simulations. Cross-sectional `generate_ddd_data` remains available unchanged. Produces a balanced panel of `n_units × n_periods` with two unit-level binary dimensions (`group`, `partition`) and a derived `post = 1[period >= treatment_period]` indicator; columns: `unit, period, outcome, group, partition, post, treated, true_effect` (+ `x1, x2` when `add_covariates=True`). DDD-CPT identification holds because the `group * partition` interaction enters as a unit-level (time-invariant) term, leaving the triple-interaction `treatment_effect * group * partition * post` as the sole source of differential group × partition trend. Compatible with `TripleDifference(cluster="unit").fit(..., time="post")` (the cluster kwarg is required because `TripleDifference` is the repeated-cross-section `panel=FALSE` estimator and unclustered SE on panel-generated rows understates variance under within-unit serial correlation; the point estimate `att` is invariant to clustering — see the new `TripleDifference` REGISTRY note on panel-shaped input). Users get panel-realistic unit fixed effects and within-unit serial correlation while the binary 2×2×2 estimator surface is unchanged. **Stratified allocation:** the partition split is drawn stratified-by-group at the requested `partition_frac` so every `(group, partition)` cell receives at least one unit; a targeted `ValueError` is raised at fit-time when the rounded cell counts (`n_units`, `group_frac`, `partition_frac`) would leave any cell empty. This guarantees the 2x2x2 DDD surface is populated for any valid input — independent marginal sampling (the cross-sectional `generate_ddd_data` convention) could collapse cells when marginals are small (e.g., `n_units=4, group_frac=partition_frac=0.25`). Validates `1 <= treatment_period < n_periods`, `group_frac` and `partition_frac` strictly in `(0, 1)`, and `n_units >= 4`. Deterministic recovery (`noise_sd=0`) matches `treatment_effect` to ~1e-15 (covered by `tests/test_prep.py::TestGenerateDddPanelData`, 16 tests including infeasible-config rejection and smallest-feasible-config round-trip through `TripleDifference.fit`). `power.simulate_power` is NOT yet auto-routed to the panel DGP for `TripleDifference` (the existing `_ddd_dgp_kwargs` registry entry still ignores `n_periods` and the existing `_check_ddd_dgp_compat` warning still fires on non-default kwargs) — that wiring is tracked as a follow-up in TODO.md.
 - **BaconDecomposition: Goodman-Bacon (2021) methodology audit (PR-B).** Closes the BaconDecomposition row in `METHODOLOGY_REVIEW.md` (status flipped from **In Progress** → **Complete (R parity goldens pending)**). Builds on the PR #451 paper review at `docs/methodology/papers/goodman-bacon-2021-review.md`. **Audit outcomes:** (1) Rewrote `_recompute_exact_weights` in `bacon.py` to actually implement Theorem 1 (Eqs. 7-9 + 10e-g) — the prior "exact" implementation was missing the `(1-n_kU)` factor in the subsample variance, did not square the sample share, and added an extraneous `unit_share` factor not present in the paper; the post-hoc sum-to-1 normalization masked the relative-weight error but produced ~0.3% decomposition error vs TWFE on a 3-cohort + never-treated DGP. The rewrite computes the exact numerators of Eqs. 10e/f/g and lets the post-hoc normalization handle the `V̂^D` denominator (Theorem 1's identity guarantees `V̂^D = Σ numerators`). The TWFE-vs-weighted-sum identity now holds at `atol=1e-10` on both noisy and hand-calculable DGPs. (2) Added always-treated warn+remap per paper footnote 11: units whose `first_treat` is at or before the first observable period (`first_treat <= min(time)`, excluding the never-treated sentinels `0` and `np.inf`) are automatically remapped to the `U` (untreated) bucket via an internal column (`__bacon_first_treat_internal__`) with a `UserWarning`. Detection uses ordered-time logic on the **time axis**, so panels whose `time` column has negative or zero-crossing labels (event-time encodings) are handled correctly; the `0` sentinel restriction applies only to `first_treat`, not to `time`, and a real treatment cohort with `first_treat == 0` would still be folded into U today (re-label such cohorts to a non-sentinel value before fitting). The user's original `first_treat` column is preserved unchanged. The count is surfaced as a new `BaconDecompositionResults.n_always_treated_remapped` dataclass field, rendered in `summary()` output when nonzero. **`n_never_treated` reports TRUE never-treated only**, computed from the original user column before remap — remapped always-treated units appear separately as `n_always_treated_remapped`, no double-counting. (3) New methodology test file `tests/test_methodology_bacon.py` (~24 tests across 6 classes: `TestBaconHandCalculation` hand-checks Eqs. 7-9 + 10b-d on a minimal balanced panel at `atol=1e-10`; `TestBaconParityR` skips with a pointer when goldens missing; `TestBaconAlwaysTreatedRemap` regression-tests warn+remap mechanics including user-data-preservation; `TestBaconEdgeCases` exercises no-untreated, single-cohort, unbalanced panel, constant-ATT recovery; `TestBaconWeightModes` locks the new exact-is-default contract; `TestBaconSurveyDesignNarrowing` confirms survey_design composes with exact mode and warn+remap). (4) R `bacondecomp::bacon()` parity generator committed at `benchmarks/R/generate_bacon_golden.R` covering three DGP fixtures (3-groups-with-U, 2-groups-no-U, always-treated-remapped); JSON goldens deferred until `bacondecomp` R package is installed (parity tests skip cleanly with an explicit pointer). (5) `docs/methodology/REGISTRY.md` `## BaconDecomposition` block replaced with the paper-review-sourced entry plus three new sub-notes: weight modes (exact vs approximate), always-treated remap, R parity status. **Explicit removal:** the prior REGISTRY block's "Weights may be negative for later-vs-earlier comparisons" claim was incorrect per Theorem 1 (decomposition weights are strictly positive and sum to 1; negative weights are an estimand-level phenomenon, not estimator-level) and is dropped from the new entry. Closes the BaconDecomposition follow-up tracked at `TODO.md` (the prior row added in PR #451 is replaced by a narrower R-parity-goldens deferral row).
 - **`SpilloverDiD` — ring-indicator spillover-aware DiD (Butts 2021).** New standalone estimator at `diff_diff/spillover.py` implementing two-stage Gardner methodology with ring-indicator covariates that identify direct effect on treated (`tau_total`) alongside per-ring spillover effects on near-control units (`delta_j`). Documented synthesis of ingredients (no single published software covers the exact recipe — `did2s` implements Gardner two-stage without rings; the Butts ring estimator has no R/Stata package): Butts (2021) Section 5 / Table 2 identification, Gardner (2022) two-stage residualize-then-fit, and the Conley spatial-HAC vcov shipped in 3.3.3. Handles both panel non-staggered (Equations 5/6/8) and Section 5 staggered timing in one estimator — non-staggered is the special case where all treated units share an onset time. **API:** `SpilloverDiD(rings=[0, 50, 100, 200], conley_coords=("lat","lon"), ...).fit(data, outcome="y", unit="unit", time="t", treatment="D")` (binary D auto-converted to `first_treat`) or `.fit(..., first_treat="first_treat")` (Gardner convention). Result: `SpilloverDiDResults(DiDResults)` with `.att` = `tau_total`, `.spillover_effects` (per-ring `pd.DataFrame` with `coef`/`se`/`t_stat`/`p_value`/`ci_low`/`ci_high`), `.ring_breakpoints`, `.d_bar`, `.n_units_ever_in_ring`, `.n_far_away_obs`, `.is_staggered`. `.coefficients` exposes all `(1+K)` stage-2 entries (`"treatment"` + `"_spillover_<ring_label>"`) plus an `"ATT"` alias keyed to vcov columns. **Methodology spec (committed):** stage-2 regressor is the time-varying `(1 - D_it) * Ring_{it,j}` form (paper page 12's `S_it = S_i * 1{t >= t_treat}` notation; Section 5 Table 2's `S^k_{it}` / `Ring^k_{it,j}`). Reading the literal unit-static `(1 - D_it) * S_i` from Equation 5 is algebraically rank-deficient under TWFE (`(1-D_it) * S_i = S_i - D_it`, with `S_i` absorbed by `mu_i`, leaving `-D_it`); only the time-varying form supports the paper's identification (Proposition 2.3). Stage-1 subsample uses Butts' STRICTER `Omega_0 = {D_it = 0 AND S_it = 0}` (untreated AND unexposed), not TwoStageDiD's `{D_it = 0}` alone — this prevents spillover-contaminated near-controls in pre/post periods from biasing the time FE. **Gardner identity (non-staggered):** a 20-seed deterministic regression test pins `SpilloverDiD.att` against a direct single-stage TWFE ring regression on the full sample (`y ~ mu_i + lambda_t + tau * D_it + sum_j delta_j * (1 - D_it) * Ring_{it,j}`) at `atol=1e-10` — empirically bit-identical, so the reported non-staggered `tau_total` IS the Butts Eqs. 4-6 estimator. **Identification-check policy (period strict, unit warn-and-drop, plus connectivity):** every period must have at least one Omega_0 row (hard `ValueError` — dropping a period removes all units' cross-time identification). Units lacking Omega_0 rows (e.g. baseline-treated units with `D_it = 1` at every observed `t`) are warned-and-dropped: their unit FE is NaN, residualization writes NaN on their rows, and the downstream finite-mask path excludes them from stage 2 — mirrors `TwoStageDiD`'s always-treated convention. Additionally, the supported-units bipartite graph (units linked by shared Omega_0 periods) must form a single connected component; `K > 1` components raise `ValueError` because the FE solver would return only component-specific constants and residualization would silently mix them across components (defense-in-depth — under absorbing treatment the disconnected case may be unreachable through the upstream validators, but the check future-proofs Wave B follow-ups). **Public API restrictions (Wave B MVP):** `covariates=` raises `NotImplementedError` because Gardner-style two-stage requires covariate effects estimated on the untreated-and-unexposed subsample at stage 1 (appending raw covariates only at stage 2 silently biases `tau_total` / `delta_j` on panels with time-varying covariates); non-absorbing / reversible treatment patterns (e.g. `[0, 1, 0]`) raise `ValueError` rather than being silently coerced into "treated from first 1 onward"; non-constant `first_treat` values across rows of the same unit raise `ValueError`; `conley_coords` is required on every fit path (not just `vcov_type="conley"`) because ring construction always uses it. **Far-away control identification:** uses CURRENT-period untreated status (`D_it = 0`) rather than never-treated-only, so all-eventually-treated staggered designs (no never-treated units) can identify the counterfactual via not-yet-treated far-away rows. **Variance (Wave B MVP):** stage-2 OLS variance via `solve_ols` (HC1 / Conley / cluster paths all flow through). The Gardner GMM first-stage uncertainty correction is NOT applied at stage 2 in this PR (documented limitation; planned follow-up extends `two_stage.py::_compute_gmm_variance` to accept a Conley kernel matrix in place of HC1's identity at the influence-function outer-product step). **Deferred features (planned follow-ups):** `event_study=True` per-event-time × ring coefficients (Butts Table 2), `survey_design=` integration, `ring_method="count"` (count-of-treated-in-ring), data-driven `d_bar` selection (Butts 2021b / Butts 2023 JUE Insight), Gardner GMM first-stage correction at stage 2, sparse staggered ring-distance path. **Tests:** `tests/test_spillover.py` (157 tests across ring-construction primitives, validators, fit integration, raw-data invariant, identification MC — non-staggered DGP at 50 seeds + 200-seed `@pytest.mark.slow` variant recovers both `tau_total` and `delta_1`; staggered DGP at 30 seeds anchors both `tau_total` and `delta_1` — Conley plumbing (verifies `solve_ols` is called with `vcov_type="conley"` + Conley kwargs, no silent HC1 fallback), Gardner identity bit-identity, coefficients-vs-vcov alignment, warn-and-drop, rank_deficient_action validation, Omega_0 bipartite-graph connectivity, anticipation behavior on both fit paths). DGP factories `tests/_dgp_utils.py::generate_butts_nonstaggered_dgp` / `generate_butts_staggered_dgp` satisfy Butts Assumptions 1/3/5/7 by construction.
 - **`ChaisemartinDHaultfoeuille.predict_het` × `placebo`: R-parity on both global and per-path surfaces.** R-verified — `did_multiplegt_dyn(predict_het, placebo)` emits heterogeneity OLS results on backward (placebo) horizons via R's `DIDmultiplegtDYN:::did_multiplegt_main` placebo block (`effect = matrix(-i, ...)` rbind site); the same block runs per-by_level under `did_multiplegt_dyn(by_path, predict_het, placebo)`, so both global `res$results$predict_het` and per-by_level `res$by_level_i$results$predict_het` slots emit backward rows. R's predict_het syntax with `placebo > 0` requires the `c(-1)` sentinel in the horizon vector to trigger "compute heterogeneity for ALL forward (1..effects) AND ALL placebo (1..placebo) positions" — passing positive-only horizons errors with "specified numbers in predict_het that exceed the number of placebos". Python mirrors via `_compute_heterogeneity_test(..., placebo=L_max)` (set automatically from `self.placebo` at both global and per-path call sites in `fit()`) — the function iterates forward (1..L_max) and backward (-1..-L_max) horizons in a single loop with an explicit `out_idx < 0` eligibility guard for backward horizons whose `F_g` is too small (would otherwise silently misread `N_mat` via numpy negative indexing). `results.heterogeneity_effects` uses negative-int keys for backward horizons; `path_heterogeneity_effects` does the same per path. Placebo rows in `to_dataframe(level="by_path")` have non-NaN `het_*` columns when `placebo=True` and `heterogeneity=` are both set. **Survey gate (warn + skip):** `survey_design + placebo + heterogeneity` emits a `UserWarning` at fit-time and falls back to forward-horizon-only heterogeneity on both surfaces — the Binder TSL cell-period allocator's REGISTRY justification is tied to **post-period** attribution; backward-horizon attribution puts ψ_g mass on a pre-period cell, a separate library-extension claim that needs its own derivation. Forward-horizon `predict_het + survey_design` continues to work unchanged on both global and per-path surfaces. The function-level `_compute_heterogeneity_test` keeps a per-iteration `NotImplementedError` backstop for direct callers that bypass fit(). Pre-period allocator derivation deferred to a follow-up methodology PR (tracked in TODO.md). R parity confirmed at `tests/test_chaisemartin_dhaultfoeuille_parity.py::TestDCDHDynRParityHeterogeneityWithPlacebo` (scenario 23, `multi_path_reversible_predict_het_with_placebo_global`, `placebo=2, effects=3, no by_path`) and `::TestDCDHDynRParityByPathHeterogeneityWithPlacebo` (scenario 22, same DGP plus `by_path=3`); pinned at `BETA_RTOL=1e-6` / `SE_RTOL=1e-5` for `beta` / `se` / `t_stat` / `n_obs` and `INFERENCE_RTOL=1e-4` for `p_value` / `conf_int` across 3 paths × (3 forward + 2 placebo) = 15 horizons + 1 global × 5 horizons. Cross-surface invariants regression-tested at `tests/test_chaisemartin_dhaultfoeuille.py::TestByPathPredictHetPlacebo` (placebo het column population, survey-gate warn+skip behavior, forward+survey anti-regression, `out_idx<0` eligibility guard, single-path telescope `path_heterogeneity_effects[(only_path,)] == heterogeneity_effects` bit-exactly, summary rendering, direct-call `NotImplementedError` backstop). Closes TODO #422.