Skip to content

Separate operational vs market signals: production throttles, investm…#90

Merged
jakechinitz merged 1 commit into
mainfrom
claude/fix-ai-efficiency-cap-db3i3
Feb 15, 2026
Merged

Separate operational vs market signals: production throttles, investm…#90
jakechinitz merged 1 commit into
mainfrom
claude/fix-ai-efficiency-cap-db3i3

Conversation

@jakechinitz
Copy link
Copy Markdown
Owner

…ent doesn't

The previous commit used effectiveDemand for everything, which killed the expansion feedback loop. Supply grew slowly because:

  • Tightness used effectiveDemand (low for non-bottlenecks) → weak expansion signal
  • Expansion forecast used effectiveDemand → no capacity builds triggered
  • GPU backlog excluded component gating → no plan growth pressure

Fix: split into two signal channels:

  • Operational (production, delivery, inventory): use effectiveDemand → prevents unbounded inventory in non-binding components
  • Market (tightness, expansion, GPU backlog): use planDemand → preserves investment pressure that resolves bottlenecks

This mirrors real supply chains: Samsung builds fabs based on 5-year order books (planDemand), but runs assembly lines based on current orders (effectiveDemand). The full demand signal drives investment while actual consumption governs day-to-day production.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01PHK9qmguUSTyvykAoho467

…ent doesn't

The previous commit used effectiveDemand for everything, which killed the
expansion feedback loop. Supply grew slowly because:
- Tightness used effectiveDemand (low for non-bottlenecks) → weak expansion signal
- Expansion forecast used effectiveDemand → no capacity builds triggered
- GPU backlog excluded component gating → no plan growth pressure

Fix: split into two signal channels:
- Operational (production, delivery, inventory): use effectiveDemand
  → prevents unbounded inventory in non-binding components
- Market (tightness, expansion, GPU backlog): use planDemand
  → preserves investment pressure that resolves bottlenecks

This mirrors real supply chains: Samsung builds fabs based on 5-year order
books (planDemand), but runs assembly lines based on current orders
(effectiveDemand). The full demand signal drives investment while actual
consumption governs day-to-day production.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01PHK9qmguUSTyvykAoho467
@jakechinitz jakechinitz merged commit 36cd0cc into main Feb 15, 2026
1 check passed
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

2 participants