fix(CII): replace hard-cap HAPI fallback with log scale + finer displacement tiers

scripts/_climate-zones.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+/**
+ * Shared climate zone definitions.
+ * ZONES = original 15 geopolitical zones
+ * CLIMATE_ZONES = 7 additional climate-specific zones
+ * ALL_ZONES = ZONES + CLIMATE_ZONES
+ *
+ * Single source of truth — import this in both seeders to keep them in sync.
+ */
+
+export const ZONES = [
+  { name: 'Ukraine', lat: 48.4, lon: 31.2 },
+  { name: 'Middle East', lat: 33.0, lon: 44.0 },
+  { name: 'Sahel', lat: 14.0, lon: 0.0 },
+  { name: 'Horn of Africa', lat: 8.0, lon: 42.0 },
+  { name: 'South Asia', lat: 25.0, lon: 78.0 },
+  { name: 'California', lat: 36.8, lon: -119.4 },
+  { name: 'Amazon', lat: -3.4, lon: -60.0 },
+  { name: 'Australia', lat: -25.0, lon: 134.0 },
+  { name: 'Mediterranean', lat: 38.0, lon: 20.0 },
+  { name: 'Taiwan Strait', lat: 24.0, lon: 120.0 },
+  { name: 'Myanmar', lat: 19.8, lon: 96.7 },
+  { name: 'Central Africa', lat: 4.0, lon: 22.0 },
+  { name: 'Southern Africa', lat: -25.0, lon: 28.0 },
+  { name: 'Central Asia', lat: 42.0, lon: 65.0 },
+  { name: 'Caribbean', lat: 19.0, lon: -72.0 },
+];
+
+export const CLIMATE_ZONES = [
+  { name: 'Arctic', lat: 70.0, lon: 0.0 },
+  { name: 'Greenland', lat: 72.0, lon: -42.0 },
+  { name: 'WestAntarctic', lat: -78.0, lon: -100.0 },
+  { name: 'TibetanPlateau', lat: 31.0, lon: 91.0 },
+  { name: 'CongoBasin', lat: -1.0, lon: 24.0 },
+  { name: 'CoralTriangle', lat: -5.0, lon: 128.0 },
+  { name: 'NorthAtlantic', lat: 55.0, lon: -30.0 },
+];
+
+export const ALL_ZONES = [...ZONES, ...CLIMATE_ZONES];
+
+export const MIN_ZONES = Math.ceil(ALL_ZONES.length * 2 / 3); // 15

scripts/seed-climate-anomalies.mjs

@@ -1,29 +1,24 @@
 #!/usr/bin/env node
-
-import { loadEnvFile, CHROME_UA, runSeed } from './_seed-utils.mjs';
+/**
+ * seed-climate-anomalies.mjs
+ *
+ * Computes climate anomalies by comparing current 7-day means against
+ * WMO 30-year climatological normals (1991-2020) for the current calendar month.
+ *
+ * The previous approach of comparing against the previous 23 days of the same
+ * 30-day window was climatologically wrong — a sustained heat wave during a
+ * uniformly hot month would not appear anomalous because the baseline was
+ * equally hot.
+ */
+
+import { loadEnvFile, CHROME_UA, runSeed, getRedisCredentials } from './_seed-utils.mjs';
+import { ALL_ZONES, MIN_ZONES } from './_climate-zones.mjs';
 
 loadEnvFile(import.meta.url);
 
 const CANONICAL_KEY = 'climate:anomalies:v1';
 const CACHE_TTL = 10800; // 3h
-
-const ZONES = [
-  { name: 'Ukraine', lat: 48.4, lon: 31.2 },
-  { name: 'Middle East', lat: 33.0, lon: 44.0 },
-  { name: 'Sahel', lat: 14.0, lon: 0.0 },
-  { name: 'Horn of Africa', lat: 8.0, lon: 42.0 },
-  { name: 'South Asia', lat: 25.0, lon: 78.0 },
-  { name: 'California', lat: 36.8, lon: -119.4 },
-  { name: 'Amazon', lat: -3.4, lon: -60.0 },
-  { name: 'Australia', lat: -25.0, lon: 134.0 },
-  { name: 'Mediterranean', lat: 38.0, lon: 20.0 },
-  { name: 'Taiwan Strait', lat: 24.0, lon: 120.0 },
-  { name: 'Myanmar', lat: 19.8, lon: 96.7 },
-  { name: 'Central Africa', lat: 4.0, lon: 22.0 },
-  { name: 'Southern Africa', lat: -25.0, lon: 28.0 },
-  { name: 'Central Asia', lat: 42.0, lon: 65.0 },
-  { name: 'Caribbean', lat: 19.0, lon: -72.0 },
-];
+const ZONE_NORMALS_KEY = 'climate:zone-normals:v1';
 
 function avg(arr) {
   return arr.length ? arr.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / arr.length : 0;
@@ -51,7 +46,37 @@ function classifyType(tempDelta, precipDelta) {
   return 'ANOMALY_TYPE_COLD';
 }
 
-async function fetchZone(zone, startDate, endDate) {
+/**
+ * Fetch zone normals from Redis cache.
+ * Returns a map of zone name -> { tempMean, precipMean } for the current month.
+ */
+async function fetchZoneNormalsFromRedis() {
+  const { url, token } = getRedisCredentials();
+  const resp = await fetch(`${url}/get/${encodeURIComponent(ZONE_NORMALS_KEY)}`, {
+    headers: { Authorization: `Bearer ${token}` },
+    signal: AbortSignal.timeout(10_000),
+  });
+
+  if (!resp.ok) {
+    console.log('[CLIMATE] Zone normals not in cache — normals seeder may not have run yet');
+    return null;
+  }
+
+  const data = await resp.json();
+  if (!data.result) return null;
+
+  try {
+    const parsed = JSON.parse(data.result);
+    return parsed.zones || null;
+  } catch {
+    return null;
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Fetch current conditions for a zone and compare against WMO normals.
+ */
+async function fetchZone(zone, normals, startDate, endDate) {
   const url = `https://archive-api.open-meteo.com/v1/archive?latitude=${zone.lat}&longitude=${zone.lon}&start_date=${startDate}&end_date=${endDate}&daily=temperature_2m_mean,precipitation_sum&timezone=UTC`;
 
   const resp = await fetch(url, {
@@ -73,15 +98,55 @@ async function fetchZone(zone, startDate, endDate) {
     }
   }
 
-  if (temps.length < 14) return null;
+  if (temps.length < 7) return null;
 
+  // Use last 7 days as current period
   const recentTemps = temps.slice(-7);
-  const baselineTemps = temps.slice(0, -7);
   const recentPrecips = precips.slice(-7);
-  const baselinePrecips = precips.slice(0, -7);
 
-  const tempDelta = Math.round((avg(recentTemps) - avg(baselineTemps)) * 10) / 10;
-  const precipDelta = Math.round((avg(recentPrecips) - avg(baselinePrecips)) * 10) / 10;
+  const currentTempMean = avg(recentTemps);
+  const currentPrecipMean = avg(recentPrecips);
+
+  // Find the normal for this zone and current month (UTC)
+  const currentMonth = new Date().getUTCMonth() + 1; // 1-12, UTC
+  const zoneNormal = normals?.find((n) => n.zone === zone.name);
+
+  if (!zoneNormal) {
+    // Fallback: compute from previous 30 days if normals not available
+    // (This is the old behavior for backwards compatibility during transition)
+    const baselineTemps = temps.slice(0, -7);
+    const baselinePrecips = precips.slice(0, -7);
+
+    if (baselineTemps.length < 7) return null;
+
+    const baselineTempMean = avg(baselineTemps);
+    const baselinePrecipMean = avg(baselinePrecips);
+
+    const tempDelta = Math.round((currentTempMean - baselineTempMean) * 10) / 10;
+    const precipDelta = Math.round((currentPrecipMean - baselinePrecipMean) * 10) / 10;
+
+    return {
+      zone: zone.name,
+      location: { latitude: zone.lat, longitude: zone.lon },
+      tempDelta,
+      precipDelta,
+      severity: classifySeverity(tempDelta, precipDelta),
+      type: classifyType(tempDelta, precipDelta),
+      period: `${startDate} to ${endDate}`,
+      baselineSource: 'rolling-30d-fallback',
+    };
+  }
+
+  // Use WMO normal for current month
+  const monthNormal = zoneNormal.normals?.find((n) => n.month === currentMonth);
+
+  if (!monthNormal) {
+    console.log(`[CLIMATE] ${zone.name}: No normal for month ${currentMonth}`);
+    return null;
+  }
+
+  const tempDelta = Math.round((currentTempMean - monthNormal.tempMean) * 10) / 10;
+  const precipDelta = Math.round((currentPrecipMean - monthNormal.precipMean) * 10) / 10;
 
   return {
     zone: zone.name,
@@ -91,18 +156,39 @@ async function fetchZone(zone, startDate, endDate) {
     severity: classifySeverity(tempDelta, precipDelta),
     type: classifyType(tempDelta, precipDelta),
     period: `${startDate} to ${endDate}`,
+    baselineSource: 'wmo-30y-normals',
+    baseline: {
+      tempMean: monthNormal.tempMean,
+      precipMean: monthNormal.precipMean,
+      month: monthNormal.monthName,
+      period: zoneNormal.period,
+    },
   };
 }
 
 async function fetchClimateAnomalies() {
   const endDate = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
-  const startDate = new Date(Date.now() - 30 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000).toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+
+  // Try to fetch WMO normals from Redis
+  const normals = await fetchZoneNormalsFromRedis();
+  const hasNormals = normals && normals.length > 0;
+
+  if (hasNormals) {
+    console.log(`[CLIMATE] Using WMO 30-year normals for ${normals.length} zones`);
+  } else {
+    console.log('[CLIMATE] Normals not available — using 30-day rolling fallback');
+  }
+
+  // If normals are available, fetch 7 days of data for current period comparison
+  // If normals are NOT available, fetch 30 days so the fallback can split into baseline + current
+  const daysToFetch = hasNormals ? 7 : 30;
+  const startDate = new Date(Date.now() - daysToFetch * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000).toISOString().slice(0, 10);
 
   const anomalies = [];
   let failures = 0;
-  for (const zone of ZONES) {
+  for (const zone of ALL_ZONES) {
     try {
-      const result = await fetchZone(zone, startDate, endDate);
+      const result = await fetchZone(zone, normals, startDate, endDate);
       if (result != null) anomalies.push(result);
     } catch (err) {
       console.log(`  [CLIMATE] ${err?.message ?? err}`);
@@ -111,23 +197,23 @@ async function fetchClimateAnomalies() {
     await new Promise((r) => setTimeout(r, 200));
   }
 
-  const MIN_ZONES = Math.ceil(ZONES.length * 2 / 3);
   if (anomalies.length < MIN_ZONES) {
-    throw new Error(`Only ${anomalies.length}/${ZONES.length} zones returned data (${failures} errors) — skipping write to preserve previous Redis data`);
+    throw new Error(`Only ${anomalies.length}/${ALL_ZONES.length} zones returned data (${failures} errors) — skipping write to preserve previous Redis data`);
   }
 
   return { anomalies, pagination: undefined };
 }
 
 function validate(data) {
-  return Array.isArray(data?.anomalies) && data.anomalies.length >= Math.ceil(ZONES.length * 2 / 3);
+  return Array.isArray(data?.anomalies) && data.anomalies.length >= MIN_ZONES;
 }
 
 runSeed('climate', 'anomalies', CANONICAL_KEY, fetchClimateAnomalies, {
   validateFn: validate,
   ttlSeconds: CACHE_TTL,
-  sourceVersion: 'open-meteo-archive-30d',
+  sourceVersion: 'open-meteo-archive-wmo-normals',
 }).catch((err) => {
-  const _cause = err.cause ? ` (cause: ${err.cause.message || err.cause.code || err.cause})` : ''; console.error('FATAL:', (err.message || err) + _cause);
+  const _cause = err.cause ? ` (cause: ${err.cause.message || err.cause.code || err.cause})` : '';
+  console.error('FATAL:', (err.message || err) + _cause);
   process.exit(1);
 });